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Online. forex الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس مخطط نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة على الانترنت الفوركس التداول بنا نظام تداول الفوركس فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط التعرف على البرمجيات مجانا فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة على الانترنت تداول العملات الأجنبية نظام تجارة الفوركس فوريكس تشارت نمط التعرف على البرمجيات فري فوريكس تشارت نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس مخطط نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة أونلين الفوركس التداول بنا الفوركس نظام التداول فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس مخطط نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة أونلين فوريكس ترادينغ نحن الفوركس نظام التداول فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس مخطط نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة أونلين الفوركس التداول لنا الفوركس المخطط نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل الفوركس المخطط الاعتراف نمط البرمجيات e مجانا أونلين فوريكس ترادينغ أوس فوركس ترادينغ سيستيم فوريكس تشارت برنامج التعرف على النماذج فري فوريكس تشارت نمط التعرف على البرمجيات مجانا غغت أفضل الفوركس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة على الانترنت تداول الفوركس لنا نظام تداول الفوركس فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط التعرف على البرمجيات مجانا فوريكس الرسم البياني نمط الاعتراف البرمجيات الحرة غغت أفضل فوريكس تشارت برنامج التعرف على الأنماط مجانا أونلين فوريكس ترادينغ أوس فوركس ترادينغ سيستيم فوريكس تشارت برنامج التعرف على الأنماط مجانا فوركس الرسم البياني الفني برنامج التعرف على الأنماط مجانا عند زيادة معرفتك وخبرتك في تداول العملات الأجنبية، من الواضح أنك ستزيد أيضا فرصك لتعظيم الأرباح وتقليل الخسائر في النشاط. سوف تعرف بالضبط الفرصة عند بيع ومتى لشراء العملات التي يجري تداولها لتحقيق هذا الغرض، وهي المهارة التي فقط يتقن تجار الفوركس الخبراء إلى الفن الجميل. حسنا، بطبيعة الحال، تصبح تاجر الفوركس ماستر يستغرق وقتا وجهدا والمال. سوق الفوركس هو نظام معقد وتنافسي ومتطور يتطلب اهتماما كاملا من المشاركين الذين يرغبون في تحقيق أقصى قدر من الأرباح والحد الأدنى من الخسائر. وبعبارة أخرى، تداول العملات الأجنبية لا يكون مناسبا كهواية أو هواية أو وسيلة ترفيهية. لئلا تفكر، ومع ذلك، أن تداول العملات الأجنبية هو فقط للعباقرة الرياضيات والمعلمين الاستثمار، والتفكير مرة أخرى. يجب أن نبدأ جميعا في مكان ما ومع الفوركس، ويبدأ مع التعليم تليها الممارسة مع وهمية والحسابات الحية. دعونا نناقش هذه الجوانب. أولا، يمكن أن يعني الحصول على التعليم مسارين، هما الرسمي وغير الرسمي. التعليم الرسمي يعني الالتحاق في فصول الجامعات التي تتناول التمويل مع التركيز على سوق الفوركس والصناعات ذات الصلة. على الرغم من أن الجنيه البريطاني قد كافح لإيجاد الاتجاه في عام 2018. بعد النزول الى بداية صلبة 8211 ارتفاع 4 مقابل الدولار الأمريكي في أقل من شهر 8211 الجنيه منذ ركود منذ ذلك الحين. في 1.625 غبوسد، هو الآن على نفس المستوى الذي كان عليه قبل خمسة أشهر. وبالنظر إلى حالة رهيبة من أساسيات المملكة المتحدة، وحقيقة أنه لا يزال لديه أي مكاسب للاستمرار في هو في حد ذاته شيء من معجزة. فشل الجنيه 8217s لجعل أي تقدم إضافي 8217t تأتي بمثابة مفاجأة. أولا، الجنيه ليس عملة الملاذ الآمن. وهذا يعني أن الفرصة الوحيدة التي يجب أن ترتفع هو عندما يكون خطر 8220on.8221 للأسف، الجنيه أيضا عشرات منخفضة جدا في هذا الصدد. نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي السنوي هو حاليا مثيرة للشفقة .5، ومن المتوقع في 1.8 فقط للعام بأكمله. التضخم مرتفع، وكل من الميزان التجاري ورصيد الحساب الجاري في عجز. وقد أدى إنفاق العجز إلى ارتفاع الدين الحكومي، وهناك احتمال أن تفقد المملكة المتحدة تصنيفها الائتماني آا. قد يكون المستثمرون على استعداد للتغاضي عن كل هذا إذا كانت أسعار الفائدة على مستوى جذاب. للأسف، في .5، بنك انجلترا 8217s (البنك المركزي البريطاني) المعدل القياسي هو من بين أدنى المعدلات في العالم. وعلاوة على ذلك، فمن المتوقع 8217t لبدء معدلات المشي لمسافات طويلة لعدة أشهر، وحتى ذلك الحين، فإن وتيرة يكون بطيئا. ببساطة، الاقتصاد هش جدا لدعم تشديد خطير للسياسة النقدية. وتعكس العقود الآجلة لأسعار الفائدة توقعا بتوافق الآراء بأن معدلات الفائدة سترتفع بمقدار 75 نقطة أساس فقط بعد سنة من الآن. إذا كان هذا 8217s القضية، لماذا تحطمت 8217t الجنيه الاسترليني تماما لكي نكون منصفين، الجنيه يخسر غروروندروند مقابل كل من اليورو والفرنك، الأول الذي كان قد اكتسبت أسباب اقتصادية في حين أن هذا الأخير هو صرف في وضعها كأمون هافن. من ناحية أخرى، لا يزال الجنيه مستقرا لهذا العام مقابل الدولار الأمريكي والين الياباني، وكلاهما أيضا عملات الملاذ الآمن. وقد يكون الحال هو أن الباوند ليس ببساطة أبشع العملات، لأن كل التهم التي يمكن رفعها ضده يمكن أن تقابل بالمثل الدولار. من الرأس إلى الرأس، it8217s في الواقع من الممكن جدا أن الجنيه لا يزال يفوز، إلا إذا كانت أسعار الفائدة أعلى قليلا من الولايات المتحدة. أو، يمكن أن يكون الحال أن المستثمرين لا يزالون يعتقدون أن بنك انجلترا سوف يأتي حولها وبدء معدلات المشي لمسافات طويلة. بعد كل شيء، في بداية العام (عندما لم يكن من قبيل المصادفة، كان الجنيه لا يزال في ارتفاع)، كانت التوقعات أن بنك انجلترا قد ارتفع بالفعل مرتين في هذا الوقت، وبذلك المعيار إلى مستوى من شأنه أن يجعل الجنيه جذابة لحمل التجار. في حين يتبع بنك انجلترا 8217t من خلال، حمل التجار قد تكون متماسكة حولها، لأن تكلفة الفرصة البديلة من عقد الجنيه هو في الأساس لا شيء. أما فيما يتعلق بما إذا كان تصحيح الجنيه الإسترليني (الذي لاحظته لأول مرة الشهر الماضي) سيستمر، وهذا يعتمد كليا على بنك انجلترا. لسوء الحظ، هناك سبب ضئيل جدا للاعتقاد بأن الاقتصاد البريطاني سوف يلتقط فجأة، وبالتالي السبب القليل جدا لنتوقع بنك انجلترا إلى تشديد فجأة. عند نقطة ما، كسب .5 الفائدة على جنيه تصبح غير جذابة للمستثمرين. حتى ذلك اليوم يأتي، قد تلتصق مع الجنيه من الجمود المحض. في حين أن الجنيه قد عقد قيمته لهذا السبب، وأنا don8217t أعتقد أن لديها أي أمل في مزيد من التقدير هذا العام. في الأسبوع الماضي، كنت أستعد لكتابة وظيفة حول كيفية المبالغة في تقدير الجنيه البريطاني و بسبب التصحيح، ولكن تم تجزئته من خلال سلسلة من المقابلات (والثانية 8212 مع كاكستون فكس 8211 بالمناسبة كما ألمح إلى هذا المفهوم). للأسف، ضربتني الأسواق إلى المجموعة، و انخفض الجنيه منذ ذلك الحين أكثر من 3 مقابل الدولار - وهو أكبر انخفاض في أكثر من ستة أشهر. وعلاوة على ذلك، أعتقد أن هناك احتمالا واضحا أن الجنيه سيستمر في الانخفاض. لم يتغير الكثير منذ آخر مرة كتبت عن الجنيه. إذا كان أي شيء، فقد تدهورت الأساسيات. ولحسن الحظ، أظهرت أحدث بيانات الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أن المملكة المتحدة تجنبت الركود في الربع الأخير، ولكن هذا يقابله حقيقة أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العام لا يزال هو نفسه منذ ستة أشهر، ولا يزال 4 دون مستويات ما قبل الركود. على الرغم من ركلة طفيفة من الزفاف الملكي في أبريل، المملكة المتحدة من المؤكد تقريبا الانتهاء 2018 نحو نهاية منخفضة من دول منظمة التعاون والتنمية في الميدان الاقتصادي، وربما فوق اليابان فقط. إد كرات، مستشار الظل في المملكة المتحدة، قد اعترف، 8220We8217ve ذهب من أعلى نهاية جدول نمو النمو الاقتصادي إلى أن عالقة في أسفل فقط فوق اليونان والبرتغال. 8221 وبطبيعة الحال، فإن السؤال على أذهان التجار هو ما إذا كان بنك انكلترا (البنك المركزي البريطاني) رفع أسعار الفائدة. في البداية، كان من المفترض (من قبل لي كذلك) أن بنك انجلترا سيكون أول بنك مركزي G4 لرفع، إلا إذا احتواء التضخم المرتفع. في الواقع، في اجتماع السياسة النقدية في آذار / مارس، صوت ثلاثة أعضاء (من أصل تسعة) على ذلك. ومع ذلك، هناك موقف خففت في اجتماع أبريل، ومنذ ذلك الحين تعرضوا للضرب على حفنة من قبل البنك المركزي الأوروبي (البنك المركزي الأوروبي) الذي هو أكثر شهرة على ما يبدو. الآن، يبدو من المعقول أن نتساءل عما إذا كان بنك انجلترا قد تقع أيضا وراء بنك الاحتياطي الفدرالي. في حين لا يزال مرتفعا (4)، تباطأ معدل مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين البريطاني في الأشهر الأخيرة. 8220 وقال محافظ البنوك ميرفن كينج في 26 يناير أن ارتفاع الأسعار سيكون مؤقتا. 8221 وقد أدى خفض أسعار السلع الأساسية إلى خفض الحاجة إلى رفع سعر الفائدة، وعززت حالة الإبقاء على أسبوع الجنيه. والبطالة مرتفعة، وانخفض الإنفاق على البناء، ولا يزال العجز في الحساب الجاري واسعا. وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن التخفيضات في الميزانية (رفضت احتواء الديون الوطنية التي تضاعف تقريبا في السنوات الثلاث الماضية) وأدى رفع معدل الضريبة على القيمة المضافة إلى تضييق الاقتصاد بدرجة أكبر، لدرجة أنه قد لا يكون قادرا على تحمل ارتفاع طفيف في سعر الفائدة . وعالوة على ذلك، تعكس المعدالت المنخفضة من المعدن) المكافئ البريطاني لسندات الخزانة األمريكية (توقعات استمرار انخفاض المعدالت في المستقبل القريب. إذا كان الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للربع الثاني 8211 الذي فاز 8217t سيصدر لمدة 3 أشهر أخرى، وهو قوي، فإن بنك انجلترا قد تصور لتشديد. ومع ذلك، فإننا ربما ربحنا 8217t نرى أكثر من 25 نقطة أساس قبل عام 2018. ويبدو أن الشيء الوحيد الذي أبقى الجنيه واقفا على قدميه لفترة طويلة كان ارتباطه مع اليورو، الذي ارتفع مؤخرا فوق 1.50. ومنذ ذلك الحين انخفض بشكل كبير وسحب الجنيه أسفل معها. في الواقع، الجنيه ربما يحتاج إلى سقوط 3 أخرى فقط للبقاء على المسار الصحيح مع اليورو. إذا كان هذا الارتباط قد كسر، فإنه من المؤكد تقريبا سوف تقع أبعد من ذلك بكثير. فقد أصبح من الواضح أن أسواق الفوركس قد أصبحت منافسة الجمال العكسي، حيث يصوت المستثمرون ليس على العملات الأكثر جاذبية، بل على الأقل القبيح. عند هذه النقطة، فمن الآمن القول أن العملات بين G4، الجنيه هو أبشع. أعلن المستشار البريطاني جورج أوزبورن أمس أن حكومته مستعدة للبدء بإعادة بناء احتياطيات النقد الأجنبي. اعتمادا على متى، وكيف، (أو حتى لو) يتم تنفيذ هذا البرنامج، فإنه يمكن أن يكون لها آثار خطيرة على الجنيه. وكان مراقبو احتياطي العملات الأجنبية (أنا وشملت) متحمسون تقرير وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية المحدثة على حيازات الأجانب من الأوراق المالية الخزانة الأمريكية. وبما أن الدولار هو العالم 8217s عملة الاحتياط الفعلي والأوراق المالية الخزانة الأمريكية هي الأصل في الاختيار، والتقرير هو في الأساس رسم تقريبي لكل من الدولار 8217s شعبية عالمية وتدخلات البنوك المركزية الأجنبية. شخصيا، كنت أعتقد أن أكبر صدمة لم تكن الصين 8217s حيازات الخزينة هي 300 مليار أكبر مما كان يعتقد سابقا (مع 3 تريليون في الاحتياطيات، أن 8217s حقا مجرد خطأ التقريب)، ولكن بدلا من أن المملكة المتحدة 8217s حيازات انخفضت بنسبة 50 في عام 2018، إلى مجرد 260 مليار. وبالنظر إلى أن بنك انجلترا (البنك المركزي البريطاني) حقن أكثر من 500 مليار دولار في المعروض من النقود في المملكة المتحدة في عام 2018، أفترض أن 1181tt الكثير كان الكثير من الوحي. بعد كل شيء، بيع سندات الخزانة الأمريكية واستخدام العائدات لشراء جيلتس البريطانية (الديون السيادية) وغيرها من الأدوات المالية من شأنه أن تمكن بنك انجلترا من تحقيق هدفه دون الحاجة إلى اللجوء إلى الطباعة النقود بالجملة. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، إن لم يكن لهذا خفة اليد، فإن التضخم في المملكة المتحدة ربما يكون أعلى من ذلك. ومع ذلك، فإن هذا ليس أكثر من مجرد خدعة محاسبية، ومن المرجح أن هذه الأموال لا تزال بحاجة إلى سحبها من العرض النقدي في مرحلة ما على أي حال. ما إذا كان بنك انجلترا يحرق العائدات أو يعيد إعادتها إلى الصكوك الأجنبية هو بالتأكيد يستحق التأمل، ولكن بقدر أنها فازت 8217t التضخم تأثير، بل هو مسألة السياسة الاقتصادية، وليس السياسة النقدية. وكما أشار المستشار أوسبورن، فإن المملكة المتحدة ربما ترسل هذه الأموال إلى الخارج. بالإضافة إلى تقديم الدعم للدولار (فضلا عن سبب آخر لعدم الشعور بالتوتر حول نهاية بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي (كيز 2)، فإن ذلك سيضعف بشكل خطير الجنيه، في الوقت الذي يكون فيه بالفعل بالقرب من أدنى مستوى له منذ 30 عاما على على أساس الترجيح التجاري. بعد هبوطه من منحدر في عام 2009، تعافى الجنيه مقابل الدولار في عام 2018، ويرجع ذلك إلى حد كبير ل BE8217s خلط احتياطيات النقد الأجنبي. للتراجع عن هذا من شأنه بالتأكيد خطر إرسال الجنيه مرة أخرى نحو هذه الأعماق. فمن ناحية، فإن المملكة المتحدة على وعي تام بذلك وستتصرف وفقا لذلك، وربما حتى تأخير أي تراكم احتياطي من النقد الأجنبي حتى يقوي الجنيه. من ناحية أخرى، يتعرض بنك إنجلترا لضغوط من أجل مكافحة التضخم. وهي مترددة في رفع أسعار الفائدة بسبب تأثيرها على الانتعاش الاقتصادي الهش. الشيء نفسه يمكن أن يقال عن فك مشتريات الأصول. ومع ذلك، إذا ما عوض ذلك عن مشتريات سندات الخزينة الأمريكية والأصول الأخرى بالعملات الأجنبية، فإنه يمكن أن يضعف الجنيه ويحافظ على بعض أشكال التحفيز الاقتصادي. خاصة وأن المملكة المتحدة قد واجهت عجزا كبيرا في الحساب التجاري لما دام بإمكان أي شخص أن يتذكر، فإن بنك إنجلترا لديه كلا من المرونة التي يحتاجها لإقناع سعر الصرف قليلا. في نهاية المطاف، we8217ll بحاجة إلى مزيد من المعلومات قبل أن نتمكن من تحديد كيف سيؤثر ذلك على الجنيه. ومع ذلك، هذا مؤشر على أن الجنيه الإسترليني مقابل الدولار قد لا يكون لديه مجال أكبر بكثير لتقدير. في حين أن I8217m أغنى من تحليل جميع العملات بالنسبة للدولار (بعد كل شيء، it8217s ما I8217m أكثر دراية وتشارك في ما يقرب من نصف جميع الصفقات الفوركس)، وأحيانا من المثير للاهتمام أن ننظر في أسعار عبر. خذ بوندورو، على سبيل المثال، يمكن القول إن واحدة من أهم الصلبان، واحدة من حفنة التي غالبا ما يتحرك بشكل مستقل عن الدولار. إذا قمت بتخطيط أداء هذا الزوج على مدى العامين الماضيين، ومع ذلك، يمكنك أن ترى النقص الواضح من التقلب. وقد تذبذب حول محور 1.15 غبور، أبدا ضالة أكثر من 5 في أي من الاتجاهين. في الواقع، فإنه 8217s يجلس الحق في هذا المستوى وأنا يؤلف هذا المنصب. أمس، قرأت بعض التعليقات من قبل بوريس سكلوسبيرغ (الذي قابلته في 2018)، مدير أبحاث العملات في غفت. في العنوان (8220 يورو وباوند الذهاب إلى طرق منفصلة 8221)، وقال انه يبدو أن تشير إلى أن خطوة كبيرة وشيكة. وبصرف النظر عن ملاحظة أن كلا العملتين يقفان عند مفترق طرق، فإنه رفض تقديم المزيد من التوجيه الملموس بشأن اتجاه الاختراق المحتمل. وفي الوقت الراهن، تعاني الأسواق من العزوف عن المخاطرة، والناجمة عن الاضطراب السياسي في الشرق الأوسط والكوارث الطبيعية اليابانية. مرة واحدة هذه الأحداث تدير مسارها وترافق السوق التوتر تهدأ، والمستثمرين سوف تحتاج إلى شيء آخر ل مزلاج ل. ولعل بنك انكلترا (البنك المركزي الأوروبي) والبنك المركزي الأوروبي (إكب) يمكن أن يفي بهذه المهمة، لأن كلا منهما على وشك رفع أسعار الفائدة المرجعية لكل منهما. وبغض النظر عن أي تطورات أخرى، فإن توقيت وسرعة مثل هذه الزيادات ربما لا تملي فقط كيف تعمل هذه العملات مقابل بعضها البعض، ولكن أيضا كيف أنها تؤدي مقابل الدولار. على الرغم من العديد من المؤشرات التي على حد سواء قد أعطى العكس، وأنا don8217t أعتقد إما البنك المركزي في عجلة من امرنا لرفع أسعار الفائدة. ولا يزال النمو الاقتصادي ضعيفا، والبطالة مرتفعة، ولا يزال التضخم معتدلا. كما أنها لم تصل بعد إلى مرحلة يمكن فيها تخفيف التسهيل النقدي الذي وضعته في ذروة الأزمة المالية. وعلاوة على ذلك، كلاهما حذران من التأثير المحتمل لارتفاع أسعار الفائدة على عملات كل منهما (وهو القلق الذي من المفارقات مثيرة للاهتمام مع هذا المنصب). يبدو أن بنك انجلترا سيكون أول من يتصرف. جنبا إلى جنب مع ارتفاع أسعار الطاقة، البنك 8217s من السهل السياسة النقدية يضع ضغطا غير عادي على الأسعار، ويبدو الآن أن التضخم قد يصل إلى 5 في عام 2018. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، صوت بنك انجلترا 6-3 في اجتماعه الأخير لصالح تشديد، وهو ما يعني أن ارتفاع ربما isn8217t بعيدا جدا. من ناحية أخرى، فإن البنك المركزي الأوروبي يتحدث صعبة. ولكن لا يزال يفعل 8217t لديها الكثير من الزخم للعمل. التضخم معتدل، وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن المنطقة 8217s البنوك لا تزال تعتمد بشكل كبير على النقد البنك المركزي الأوروبي لأنها جادة التفكير العدواني. وفي كلتا الحالتين، وفارق سعر الفائدة ربما فاز 8217t تكون كبيرة بما فيه الكفاية لتشجيع أي تكهنات على المدى القصير بين العملتين. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، أعتقد أن المستثمرين سوف تستمر في النظر إلى الين والدولار للحصول على التوجيه، ونحن فاز 8217t نرى أي حركة كبيرة في أي من الاتجاهين. ويستند الرسم البياني أدناه إلى معدلات الإقراض القياسية و isn8217t بالضرورة تنطبق على تجارة الفوركس بالتجزئة. وهذا من شأنه أن يخلق فرصا للمستثمرين: يجب على التجار الخيارات النظر في المدى الطويل. والتي تنطوي على بيع وضع والدعوة على نفس سعر الإضراب (ربما 1.15)، وجيب الأقساط، والصلاة أن معدل دوسن 8217t تتقلب كثيرا (لأنها سوف تتعرض لمخاطر غير محدودة). في المستقبل، يمكن للمتداولين أيضا أن يستفيدوا من عدم التقلب من خلال استراتيجية التداول في التداول، وربما تضخيم من قبل القليل من الرافعة المالية. كن حذرا، ومع ذلك. وبما أن الفوارق في أسعار الفائدة في الوقت الراهن صغيرة جدا (فإن معدل التباين الحالي في سعر ليبور هو مجرد 0.05) وربما من المرجح أن ينمو 8217 طنا إلى أكثر من 1 خلال الاثني عشر شهرا القادمة، يمكن بسهولة القضاء على أي أرباح من الفائدة حتى من قبل أصغر سعر صرف سلبي الحركات. ارتفع الجنيه الإسترليني تقريبا 15 مقابل الدولار على مدى الاثني عشر شهرا الماضية. ويبدو أن الأسواق تتجاهل المخاوف المالية التي أدت إلى تراجع الجنيه في عام 2018، والتركيز أكثر على التضخم واحتمال رفع أسعار الفائدة. عند هذه النقطة، بنك إنجلترا (بنك انجلترا) يتسابق الآن مع البنك المركزي الأوروبي (إكب) ليكون أول 8220G48221 البنك المركزي لرفع أسعار الفائدة. يمكنك أن تجد سببا للتفاؤل تجاه الجنيه في العوامل الفنية وحدها. هذا 8217s لأنه في حين أن عشرات العملات ارتفعت مقابل الدولار في عام 2018، فإن معظمها بدأت من قاعدة أقوى. على سبيل المثال، انهار الدولار الكندي والأسترالي خلال أزمة الائتمان. ومع ذلك، فإن كلا العملتين جعلت التعافي السريع إلى الحد الذي تم محو جميع الخسائر في غضون عامين فقط. وعلى العكس من ذلك، لا يزال الجنيه الإسترليني تحت مستوى 25 قبل أزمة الائتمان السابقة، وهو أكثر اكتئابا من أي عملة أخرى. فمن المحتمل أن يكون ذلك مبررا من ناحية. لا يزال الاقتصاد البريطاني في حالة سيئة للغاية حيث أظهرت أرقام الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأخيرة انكماشا بنسبة 0.6 في الربع الأخير من عام 2018. وفي الوقت نفسه، لا يتوقع البنك المركزي الأوروبي سوى 1.4 نموا في عام 2018، ويعتقد العديد من المحللين أنه قد يكون متفائلا جدا. وباستثناء اليابان، التي تعاني من ضائقة اقتصادية فريدة من نوعها (ناهيك عن 5 ضرب الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الناجم عن الزلزال)، فإن المملكة المتحدة هي بشكل لا لبس فيه أضعف اقتصاد في العالم الصناعي. من ناحية أخرى، هذا هو في الغالب الأخبار القديمة. والسبب في أن المستثمرين بدأت في الحصول على متحمس هو ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة. وفقا لمحضر اجتماع مارس. صوت بنك انجلترا 6-3 ليحافظ على سعر الفائدة القياسي عند 0.5. وهذا يعني أنها قريبة جدا من التمثيل. ويأتي إجماع السوق على رفع سعر الفائدة بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس في الأشهر الثلاثة المقبلة، و 3-2 زيادات إضافية خلال الفترة المتبقية من العام. اعتمادا على كيفية عمل البنوك المركزية G4 الأخرى، من شأنها أن تضع أسعار المملكة المتحدة في الجزء العلوي من حزمة. ومع ذلك، فإنه 8217s غير واضح مدى واسع هذا التشديد سيكون. وفقا لأحد المحللين. 8220 احتمالية رفع أسعار الفائدة في الأشهر الثلاثة القادمة مهمة ولكن أزمة الائتمان المستمرة وتشديد المالية والنظرة القاتمة للدخول الحقيقية تشير إلى أنه إذا كانت هذه هي بداية دورة تشديد فإنها ستكون ضحلة جدا. تشير عائدات السندات إلى أن توقعات التضخم على المدى الطويل (ومن ثم الحاجة إلى رفع أسعار الفائدة) لا تزال منخفضة. في هذه المرحلة، يبدو أن المملكة المتحدة تبحث في بضع سنوات من الركود. هذا 8217s بالتأكيد سيكون سيئا للمستهلكين في المملكة المتحدة وربما سلبية لمعظم أسعار الأصول في المملكة المتحدة. ومع ذلك، فإن المضاربين بالعملات قصيرة الأجل أقل قلقا بشأن الأساسيات الاقتصادية، وأكثر قلقا بشأن الفوارق في أسعار الفائدة (المعدلة حسب المخاطر). وهذا يعني أنه إذا حقق بنك انجلترا التوقعات، فإن الجنيه ربما يحصل على ركلة قصيرة الأجل. وكانت السنوات القليلة الماضية متقلبة للجنيه البريطاني. وفي عام 2007، بلغ أعلى مستوى له منذ 26 عاما مقابل الدوالر األمريكي، قبل أن ينخفض ​​إلى أدنى مستوى له منذ 24 عاما بعد أكثر بقليل من سنة واحدة. وخلال محنة أزمة الائتمان، توقع المحللون أن يسقطوا الطريق إلى التكافؤ. للأسف، تمكنت منذ ذلك الحين من استرجاع جزء كبير من خسائرها، وانتهت عام 2018 على مقربة من حيث بدأت. في الوقت الحالي، هناك نوعان من القوى المتناقضة التي تجذب الجنيه، والتي يمكن أن ترتفع صعودا مقابل اليورو ولكن أقل مقابل الدولار الأمريكي. الأول هو أزمة الديون السيادية في الاتحاد الأوروبي، التي اندلعت بشكل كبير في عام 2018 ويهدد حاليا لشل اليورو. وسوف أقدم المزيد من التعليق على هذه المسألة في وظيفة لاحقة في الوقت الراهن، أود فقط أن أشير إلى دورها في دعم الجنيه. في حين أن الدولار هو منافس رئيس يورو 8217s، تحول العديد من التجار إلى الجنيه (والفرنك السويسري) بسبب قربها الإقليمي. 8220 طالما أن أزمة الديون منطقة اليورو هي في بؤرة السوق، وسوف يكون المحرك الرئيسي لليورو جنيه استرليني، 8221 تلخيص واحد استراتيجي. القوة الثانية (أو مجموعة من القوات) هي دفع الجنيه في الاتجاه المعاكس. في الأساس، الاقتصاد البريطاني لا يزال منخفضا. وبفضل الانكماش غير المتوقع في الربع الرابع، كان نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في عام 2018 متواضعا بشكل استثنائي 1.7. لم يكن هذا كافيا للتعويض عن متوسط ​​النمو السنوي لل 1 سنة من 2006 إلى 2009، وإرسال الجنيه تراجع. ومنذ ذلك الحين تم تنقيح التوقعات لعامي 2018 و 2018 نحو الانخفاض إلى حوالي 2. من أجل تحفيز قطاع الصادرات البريطاني 8217، قام بنك انجلترا بالعمل عمدا على تقليص الجنيه، الذي تمكن من تحقيقه من خلال مزيج من التسهيل الكمي وانخفاض الفائدة معدلات. 8220 منذ فترة طويلة، هذا ما كنا نستهدفه، وتمكنا من خفضه بنسبة 25 في المئة 8212 سعر الصرف، كان لذلك فائدة كبيرة لاقتصاد المملكة المتحدة، 8221 عضو سابق في لجنة السياسة النقدية اعترف مؤخرا. ومن النتائج غير المقصودة لهذه السياسة تضخم الأسعار. عند 3.75، يعتبر معدل التضخم من بين أعلى المعدلات في العالم الصناعي، وبالتأكيد فهو الأعلى بين عملات مجموعة ال 4. على أقل تقدير، سيتعين على بنك انجلترا أن يعلق أي تطلعات لمطابقة بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في طباعة المزيد من العملات وتوسيع برنامجه لتيسير الجودة. كما أنه لن يكون أمامه خيار سوى رفع أسعار الفائدة، وهو ما لم يكن لولا ذلك إلا أن يكون الاقتصاد على أسس متينة. وتوقع الأسواق حاليا رفع سعر الفائدة الأولي بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس في الربع الثالث، وتجاوز المعدل المعياري 1.5 في نهاية العام، مقارنة مع 0.5 في الوقت الراهن. من الصعب القول 887ss كيف أسواق العملات سوف تجعل من معنى هذا. وبالنظر إلى أن أسعار الفائدة الحقيقية ستبقى سلبية (بسبب التضخم)، يبدو من غير المحتمل أن يبدأ أي مستثمرين يسعون إلى تحقيق العوائد فجأة في استهداف الجنيه البريطاني. وباإلضافة إلى ذلك، وبالنظر إلى أن خطر 8216 التضخم 8217 في المملكة المتحدة أصبح حقيقيا اآلن، وأن الحكومة ستتحمل مبلغا قياسيا من الديون الجديدة على مدى السنوات القليلة القادمة، فمن المرجح أن يبقى المستثمرون المنكشون للمخاطر بعيدا. وفقا لأحدث التزام من تقرير التجار. بدأ المضاربون بالفعل في وضع مواقف هبوطية مقابل الدولار الأمريكي. في حين يبدو الجنيه عرضة للخطر، والمجهول الكبير هو في نهاية المطاف الأزمة المالية للاتحاد الأوروبي. إذا كان أحد الأعضاء الطرفية يترك اليورو، كما يتوقع بعض المعلقين أن يحدث أخيرا، ثم كل الرهانات (للجنيه، وما إلى ذلك) هي خارج. الارتفاع في الجنيه، الذي رفعه 10 من الحوض الصغير إلى الذروة، ويبدو أن فوزلينغ. الجنيه قد انخفض بالفعل 3 في الأسبوعين الماضيين، ويتجه نحو الانخفاض. ويقف الآن عند أدنى مستوى له في أربعة أسابيع مقابل الدولار. إذا نظرنا إلى الوراء في ارتفاع الجنيه8217s لمدة شهرين، فإنه 8217s ليس من الصعب أن نفهم لماذا كان غير مستدام. يمكنك أن ترى من الرسوم البيانية أدناه أن هناك علاقة قوية مع اليورو و سامب 500 خلال نفس الفترة من الزمن. وهذا يشير إلى أن ارتفاع الجنيه كان أقل نتاجا لتغيير األساسيات وأكثر بسبب االنخفاض المفاجئ في النفور من المخاطرة. ولم يكن من قبيل المصادفة الارتفاع في الأسهم، واليورو، وحفنة من غيرها من السيارات البديلة للمخاطر، وكلها جاءت إلى ونهاية في نفس الوقت الجنيه. وباختصار، فإن الأسواق تعود إلى التركيز على أساسيات. وعلى وجه التحديد، فإن خطر الركود المزدوج، مع عدم وجود حل في أزمة ديون منطقة اليورو، يجعل المستثمرين يفكرون مرتين في الرهانات التي تنطوي على أي نوع من المخاطر. وفي هذا الصدد، فإن الجنيه الاسترالي ضعيف بشكل خاص. وعلى الصعيد الاقتصادي، لم ينمو الاقتصاد البريطاني إلا بنسبة 1.1 في الربع الثاني، حيث توقع الاقتصاديون فقط نموا متواضعا لهذا العام. وفقا لاقتصادي لبنك انكلترا، 8220 سيكون 8216foolish8217 لاستبعاد الانكماش المتجدد. 8221 ومن الواضح أن رؤسائه يوافقون على ما يلي: 8220 قال بنك انكلترا الأسبوع الماضي إن النمو سيكون أضعف مما كان متوقعا في مايو، مستشهدا باستمرار ضبط أوضاع المالية العامة و (82). ووفقا لاستطلاع أجري مؤخرا. فإن ما يقرب من نصف األسر البريطانية متشائمة بشأن اآلفاق االقتصادية للبلد على المدى القريب: 8217: 8220 نسبة المتشائمين أقل بشكل طفيف مما كانت عليه في يوليو، ولكنها أعلى مما كانت عليه في أي شهر آخر منذ مارس من العام الماضي. 8221 ومن المفارقات أن جهود البريطانيين الحكومة للحد من الإنفاق وخفض العجز ينظر إليها على أنها تزداد سوءا. وبما أن هذه التدابير فازت ب21217 طن يقابلها تخفيض الضرائب، فإنها ستؤدي مباشرة إلى انخفاض النمو الاقتصادي. وبالنظر إلى أن كل من أسعار سندات الجنيه الإسترليني والمملكة المتحدة في ارتفاع (مما يعني زيادة مخاطر التخلف عن السداد)، أعتقد أن هذا يعزز النقطة التي أدليت بها الأسبوع الماضي حول الأسواق التي لا تهتم على الإطلاق في هذا المناخ الاقتصادي حول زيادة الدين الوطني. التزيين على الكعكة هو التضخم. وأوضح أن هناك مخبرا بريطانيا يصدر عناوينه من خلال التنبؤ بأن الاقتصاد البريطاني سينبثق من الركود العام المقبل، 8220 ولكن عندما يبدأ الانتعاش، فإنه يعتقد أن بنك انجلترا 8217s مخطط التيسير الكمي الذي ضخ 200 مليار في الاقتصاد في أعقاب فإن أزمة الائتمان ستترتب عليها عواقب وخيمة (82). وعلى وجه التحديد، يتنبأ صندوق الفكر بالتضخم الذي يبلغ 10، ومعدل الفائدة المعياري البالغ 10. وفي الوقت الراهن، يظل هذا الأمر بعيد المنال، ويركز المحللون على حقيقة أن الاقتصاد ربما إعادة الدخول في الركود قبل أن يتمكن من الخروج رسميا منه. أما بالنسبة للجنيه، فإن التوقعات ليست متفائلة: 8220 في مسح بلومبرج للاستراتيجيين يفوق عدد الثيران من 29 إلى 12، في حين أن تد للأوراق المالية في تورونتو، الأكثر دقة في الأرباع الستة المنتهية في 30 يونيو، لديها أدنى التقديرات، وتوقع الإرادة الاسترليني (15٪) مقابل الدولار بحلول نهاية العام (82221). وفقا لأحدث تقارير تعهدات المتداولين. كان المستثمرون المؤسسيون لا يزالون صافي الجنيه منذ 10 أغسطس. وفي الوقت نفسه، تحركت في قفزة مع أسعار الفورية، مما يشير إلى أن التجار الآجلة لا تزال تنتظر المزيد من البيانات قبل أن تزن على الجنيه. شخصيا، I8217m وجود وقت صعب الخروج مع التنبؤ. أنا أميل إلى الاتفاق مع توصيف 8220 أسواق العملات الأجنبية بعد الأزمة كمعرض الجمال مع المتسابقين القبيحة .8221 وبعبارة أخرى، فإن جميع العملات الرئيسية تعاني حاليا من أساسيات سيئة. ومن الصعب القول بأن الجنيه في شكل أفضل أو أسوأ من الدولار أو اليورو. ومع ذلك، وبالنظر إلى الطريقة التي تتداول بها الأسواق، فإن العودة إلى الركود (العالمي) لن تكون طيبة للجنيه. بالمقارنة مع اليورو، الجنيه هو الذهب (يتحدث مجازي). وبالمقارنة مع كل شيء آخر، حسنا، الجنيه ربما أقرب إلى مشمع. الاستعارات الجيولوجية سيئة على الرغم من أن هناك حقا 8217t الكثير للحصول على متحمس حول عند النظر إلى الجنيه. Let8217s تأخذ الانتخابات، على سبيل المثال. في البداية، كانت الانتخابات تعتبر فرصة لبدء جديد، سياسيا، بالنسبة للمملكة المتحدة، تبين أن الانتخابات لم تكن قصيرة من الكارثة. وبدلا من تحقيق انتصار واضح، فقد أسفر عن برلمان معلق. والطريقة التي تتشكل بها المحادثات حاليا، تبدو وكأنها السلطة سيشترك فيها الديمقراطيون الليبراليون والمحافظون. وهذا أمر إشكالي، لأنه ليس لدى أي من الطرفين رؤية واضحة للتعامل مع ارتفاع الدين الوطني البريطاني مع الطرفين اللذين يعملان معا، وفي الوقت نفسه، يبدو أن التوصل إلى حل توفيقي أمر غير مرجح. 8220 إن المستثمرين قلقون من أن البرلمان المعلق سوف يؤدي إلى ضعف الحكومة التي لن تكون قادرة على القوة من خلال تدابير للحد من مستويات الاقتراض المرتفعة في المملكة المتحدة 8217s. 8221 ونتيجة لذلك، يعتقد العديد من المحللين الآن أن المملكة المتحدة يمكن أن تفقد تصنيفها الائتماني آا مطمعا: 8220We يعتقدون أن خفض مستوى 8230 مرة أكثر من المرجح لأن كلا الطرفين يوافقان على أن التخفيضات في الإنفاق المبكر قد تضر بالاقتصاد. ويمكن أن يكون البديل هو أن يتفق الطرفان على زيادة الضرائب التي ستنفذ في الميزانية المقبلة. وستكون كال النتيجتين متساويتين بالنسبة لالسترليني. 8217 8221 وبغض النظر عن األزمة املالية املوجودة يف اململكة املتحدة، فإن حقيقة أن اقتصادها ما زال مستقرا، وأن أسواق رأس املال ال تزال ضعيفة، وما زال ميزان التجارة فيها يعاني من عجز دائم. 8220 وأظهرت أرقام مكتب الإحصاءات الوطنية أن الفجوة بين واردات المملكة المتحدة وصادراتها بلغت 7.5 مليار دولار في آذار / مارس. The deficit well ahead of an upwardly revised 6.3bn for February came as total imports surged 1.4bn over the month compared with a meagre 200m rise in exports.8221 From a fundamental standpoint, then, there is very little reason to own the Pound. The picture is slightly more nuanced, when viewed through the lens of technical analysis. The most recent Commitment of Traders report, meanwhile, has showed short interest in the Pound building to record levels. In addition, the ratio of longshort positions is approaching 5:1. Some analysts believe this is inherently unsustainable, and that as net positions become more lopsided, a sharp reversal becomes even more likely. Then again, some analysts had the same theory about the Euro, which was solidly disproved after the short-squeeze rally was soon followed by a steady decline and a re-accumulation of short positions. Other technical analysts are waiting to see where the Pound moves in the near-term before placing their bets. 8221 8216Last week the market eroded the 15-month uptrend from the January 2009 low at 1.350082178230the 1.4255 Fibonacci level is the last defence for the pound ahead of the 1.3500 2009 low. For the downside pressure to be taken off, key resistance at 1.5055, the May 10 high, would need to break.8217 8221 The Pound is hovering dangerously close to a number of psychologically important levels. If it breaches 1.40, it would signal a 5-year low. Consider also that the Pound last touched 1.38 in 2001 and 1.35 in 1987. To be fair, the Pound has hovered around 1.50 for most of the last 20 years, so its current level against the Dollar is not that low, relatively speaking. If investors come to their senses, and realize that the likelihood of UK sovereign default is probably not any higher than the US, and the coalition government is able to produce a convincing plan for reducing the deficit, then the Pound could bounce back. If the safe-haven mentality remains in force, however, the Pound will continue to be one of the big losers. One of the pitfalls of forex blogging (or all financial reporting for that matter) is that it8217s inherently after-the fact. In other words, any information about the past 8211 while relevant 8211 is inherently useless, since it has theoretically already been priced into the asset (or currency in this case). Before I begin my post on the Pound8217s recent decline and the factors that wrought it, then, I wanted to offer the caveat that in analyzing past events, we must simultaneously look to the future. Anyway, for anyone watching the Pound Sterling over the last month, its performance has been startling. It is down 7.5 for the year already (we8217re only in March), and has fallen 12 from its August peak of 1.70 USDGBP. This represents an unbelievable about-face, as the Pound spent much of 2009 floating upwards following its lows from the credit crisis. What8217s behind the decline In short, economics and politics, or more precisely, the junction of economics and politics. As the British economy began its recovery from recession, analysts began to turn their attention to UK government finances. Another way of looking at this would be to say that analysts have shifted their gaze from the positive effect of government intervention (i. e. economic recovery) to the many lasting negative effects. Inflation and government solvency, of course, are the two most pernicious of the bunch. The Bank of England8217s quantitative easing program was comparable to the Fed8217s program in relative terms, and in the aftermath of all of that money creation, inflation is slowly creeping up. The government8217s free spending also contributed, and now, so is the sinking Pound, as prices for commodities and other imports are rising fast in local currency terms. Speaking of government spending, the UK government budget deficit is projected at 12 for 2018, slightly higher than 2009. You can see from the chart below that budget deficits are forecast to remain large for the next few years. Expectations are so low, in fact, that a reduction in the deficit to 3 of GDP by 2018-2018 would be viewed as a victory. Naturally, the UK government feels some pressure to reduce its deficit, both for the sake of financial solvency and to control inflation. The problem is that an election must be called before June, and until then, there is natural pressure to continue operating the money printing presses 247 in order to appease the voting public. The same goes for the Bank of England it can8217t be expected to tighten monetary policy andor reverse quantitative easing until after the election. I8217m not going to pretend that I understand British politics, but from what I8217m hearing, it seems the problem is that the election polls are now very close. Previously, a major victory by the Conservative Party was seen as inevitable, and this was viewed positively by financial markets because of the expectation that they would rein in spending. Recently, the incumbent Labour Party has closed the gap, to the extent that a hung Parliament is now a likely outcome. This would be even less desirable than an outright Labour victory, because the sharing of power would make it unlikely that reforms of any kind would be enacted. With regard to forex, some have posited an inverse correlation between the rising popularity of Labour and the falling Pound. With the crisis in Greece still unresolved, analysts are also making comparisons to the UK. Some have suggested that if Greece were to receive a bailout, then, investors would turn their attention to the UK, whose finances are in equally bad shape. Without the protection of the Euro, the Pound would be open to speculative attack. On the other hand, that the (declining) Pound is independent from the Euro could become in advantage, if it boosts exports. Going forward, it8217s difficult to make any predictions until after the elections andor the government makes a firm commitment to reduce spending and lower its deficit. Some analysts think that regardless, the Pound is doomed to continue falling, perhaps all the way to the 1.40 mark. Others see the current decline as the 8220darkness before the dawn .8221 As I noted in the introduction to this post, the latter could certainly be right. Besides, most of the uncertainty has probably already priced in. While most of the factors currently weighing on the Pound are bearish, some contrarian investors might see this as a good opportunity to buy. And who8217s to say they8217re wrong Since the emergence of the debt crisis in Greece, UK policymakers have been once again patting themselves on the back for not joining the Euro. Otherwise, they would currently be in the same awkward position as France and Germany, whose economic might underpins the entire Eurozone and are wondering about if and how they should lend their support to Greece. Given that the Pound has fallen at an even faster clip than the Euro in recent weeks, however, it seems investors dont share their sense of complacency. What gives One might be inclined to posit that the Pound is falling for reasons unrelated to Greece and the travails of the EU. After all, most of the economic data emanating from the UK these days isnt exactly positive. GDP grew by an abysmal .4 in the fourth quarter of 2009, and the Bank of England, itself, has revised is 2018 projections down to 1.5. In addition, inflation is creeping up and short-term rates remain low, such that real interest rates (and by extension, the carry associated with holding Pounds) in the UK are effectively negative. While this alone would be grounds for selling the Pound, a cursory glance at GBPUSD and EURUSD cross rates reveals that the Pound and Euro are falling in tandem. In my eyes, this implies that investors have impugned a connection between the situation in the EU (i. e. Greece and the other PIGS economies) and in the UK. And no wonder, since UK debt levels are as worrisome as any other country, developing or industrialized. Its budget deficit is 13, slightly higher than in Greece. Private debt is estimated at 1.5 Trillion, or 60,000 per household, which is the highest (in relative terms) in the world. Then theres the trillion-pound bank bail-out, the trillion-pound public-sector pension liability, the trillion-pound public debt and those off-balance-sheet private finance initiatives schemes. If you add up Britains real liabilities you find that the UK is heading for a total debt burden of several times its GDP, summarized one analyst. Of course, this is nothing new. I, myself, have written about the looming UK debt crisis on previous occasions. While such a crisis is still years away, the turmoil in Greece is causing investors to cast fresh eyes on the similarities and differences with the UK, and they clearly dont like what they see. On the one hand, Britains monetary independence means that it can deflate its debt (by simply printing more money), unlike Greece, whose membership in the European Monetary Union precludes such a possibility. While this means that Britain is ultimately less likely to default on its debt, it makes it more likely that it its currency will have to weaken at some point in the future, so that its liabilities remain manageable. Bond investors, then, are right to prefer UK Bonds, but currency investors are equally right to shun the Pound in favor of the Euro. It seems that Britains conception of itself is somewhat flawed. While it thinks of itself as akin to France or Germany (and hence, is quite happy not to be an EU member at the moment), the markets seem to think of it as a Spain or Portugal. The implication is that the markets currently believe that the UK would do better if it was a member of the EU than on its own. Of course, that proposition is debatable (and still unlikely), but its worth bearing in mind because its what investors apparently believe. As usual, the BOE remains (perhaps willfully) oblivious of all of this. It is mulling an extension of its quantitative easing program, which is supposed to end this month. This program is responsible for an expansion of the money supply equal to 14 of GDP in 2009 alone Most economists consider it a dismal failure. and it seems to have succeeded only in catalyzing growth in prices (aka inflation) rather than output (aka GDP). The suspicion is that the UK government and Bank of England is not worried that the pound remains weak in this repositioning of currencies. They may indeed welcome it. There is no immediate appetite for raising interest rates to strengthen sterling and no point making exports harder by strengthening the exchange rate. They would be wise to bear in mind, though, that while currency depreciation is useful for devaluing existing debt, it can have the unintended consequence of scaring off investors, and make it difficult to fund future debt. Currency investors may be ahead of them on this one. I8217d like to follow up on my last post ( Timing is Everything in Forex, Especially in this Environment ) by looking at how to time one specific currency: the Pound. As I noted tongue-in-cheek with the title of this post, timing the Pound will not be difficult, since it is likely headed downward in both the short term and long term. In the short-term, the Pound will be crippled by the UK8217s economic woes. 8220Britain is the last of the big G20 countries still to be mired in recession. Its GDP has shrunk by 4.75 this year, far more than the 3.5 reckoned likely in April.8221 There8217s no reason to pore through the economic indicators, since all signs suggest that it won8217t be until 2018 that Britain returns to positive growth. Of primary concern to forex markets, however, is not economic growth (or lack thereof, in this case), but rather how this will effect the decision-making of the Bank of England (BOE). To no surprise, the BOE announced yesterday that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at .5, and its liquidity program at current levels. It didn8217t give any indication, meanwhile, that monetary policy on either of these fronts would change anytime soon. Thus, Britain could conceivably replace the Dollar as one of the preferred funding currencies for the carry trade. While the Fed is also in no hurry to hike rates, the US economy has already emerged from the recession, which means that regardless of when it tightens, it will almost certainly be before the Bank of England. Unless the BOE pulls an audible then, timing the Pound will be fairly straightforward the currency should begin to slip as soon as its peers begin to raise rates. Some analysts expect that the Pound will decline to 1.50 per Dollar within the next six months. Over the long-term, the narrative governing the Pound is naturally more uncertain, but still straightforward. To try to dig itself out of recession, the government has spent itself well into the red, to the extent that this year8217s budget deficit is forecast to be a whopping 12.6, Next year could be even worse. The government has implemented a couple of half-baked measures designed to curb the deficit, but most of these are aimed at increasing tax revenue (which is futile during a recession), rather than trimming spending. While ratings on its sovereign debt were recently affirmed at AAA. Moody8217s has warned that a downgrade in the next few years is not inconceivable. لذلك هناك لديك. As far as I8217m concerned, the only question of timing, vis-a-vis the British Pound, is when the decline will begin. My guess is sometime in the beginning of 2018, when investors start getting serious about projecting near-term interest rate differentials, and pricing them into exchange rates. While most forex traders aren8217t thinking this far down the road, it8217s also comforting (for bears, not bulls, obviously) that the long-term fundamentals point to a sustained decline in the Pound. Whereas the Dollar could jump up before heading back down 8211 making timing a crucial skill 8211 the Pound will probably just head down. A theme in forex markets (as well as on the Forex Blog) is that as the Dollar has declined, virtually every other assetcurrency has risen. The rationale for this phenomenon is that the global economic recovery is boosting risk appetite, such that investors are now comfortable looking outside the US for yield. However, this market snapshot may have to be tweaked slightly, in accordance with a recent WSJ article ( Sterling Looks Ready to Join the Sick List ). According to the report, 8220Similar to how investors sorted good banks from bad banks earlier this year, foreign-exchange buyers are starting to sort strong currencies from weaker currencies. The pound appears to be joining the dollar in the weak camp. Both countries have near-zero interest-rate targets, an aggressive policy aimed at boosting the economy, and yawning deficits.8221 In contrast, the article continues, the Yen and the Euro have risen, as have so-called commodity currencies. While there8217s no question that British economic and forex fundamentals are abysmal, it8217s a bit hard to understand why the markets are picking on the Pound now. After all, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Yen, for example, are plagued by some of the same fundamental problems: growing national debt, sluggish growth, low interest rates, etc. Investors can borrow in Yen nearly as cheaply as they can borrow in Dollars or Pounds, and the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates low at least as long as the Bank of England (BOE), if not longer. Meanwhile, price inflation remains practically non-existent, which means that any capital that investors stash in the UK should be safe. Perhaps, then, investors are zeroing in on the BOE8217s Quantitative Easing program, which is the point of greatest overlap with the US Dollar. Relative to GDP, both currencies8217 Central Banks have spent by far the most of any industrialized countries, in pumping newly printed money into credit markets. The BOE, in particular, is actually thinking about expanding its program. At a recent meeting, Mervyn King, Chairman of the Bank, led the opposition in voting for a 15 expansion, but was voted down by a majority of the bank8217s other members. 8220The 8216next decision point 8216 will be the Nov. 5 meeting,8221 said a former Deputy Governor of the Bank, at which point 8220Bank of England policy makers will consider expanding their bond purchase plan8230.on concern the economys recovery may be a 8216false dawn.8217 8221 The government meanwhile has demonstrated a certain ambivalence when it comes to the program. The head of the UK Debt Management Office indirectly encouraged the BOE to continues its purchases of bonds, for fear that stopping doing so could cause yields to skyrocket and make it difficult for the government to fund its activities. 8220A rapid sell-off could create a downward spiral of gilt prices which would make life harder for both it and the DMO.8221 On the other hand, one of the leaders of Britain8217s conservative party 8211 which is projected to take office after next year8217s elections 8211 has criticized the program on the grounds that it will lead to inflation. From the BOE8217s standpoint, it8217s a no-win situation. Continue the policy, and you risk inflation and further invoking the ire of politicians. Wind it down, and you could tip the economy back into recession. For better or worse, it seems the BOE will err on the side of the former: 8220If we stopped supporting the economy now it would crash. Every country in the world and just about every informed commentator is saying the same thing. The job is not finished.8221 Given that inflation is projected to hover around 0 for the next two years, the BOE still has some breathing room. As for the charge that the surfeit of cash flowing into markets is weakening the Pound, 8216So be it,8217 seems to be the attitude of Mervn King who suggested that, 8220The weaker pound was 8216helpful8217 to efforts to rebalance the British economy toward exports.8221 While he backtracked afterward, it still stands that the BOE hasn8217t made any efforts to stem the decline of the Pound, and is at best indifferent towards it. Regardless of where the BOE stands, the Pound is not being helped by the weak financial and housing sectors, which during the bubble years, comprised the biggest contribution to UK growth. Exports are weak, and domestic manufacturing activity has yet to stabilize. As a result, 8220The British economy will contract 4.4 percent this year before expanding 0.9 percent in 2018, the International Monetary Fund predicts.8221 Objectively speaking, then, it makes sense to call the Pound sick . Still, many other currencies are just as sick. I guess the perennial lesson is that in forex, everything is relative. From trough to peak (March 10 8211 August 5), the British Pound appreciated by a whopping 25, its strongest performance in such a short time period since 1985. The Pound has fallen mightily since then, and most factors point to a continued decline. On almost every front, the Pound is being buried under a mound of bad news. Its economy is currently one of the weakest in the world, especially compared to other industrialized countries on a quarterly basis, its economy is contracting at the fastest rate in over 60 years. Forecasts for UK economic growth are commensurately dismal: 8220Median estimates in Bloomberg economist surveys see the U. S. shrinking 2.6 percent in 2009 and expanding 2.2 percent in 2018, compared with a 4.1 percent contraction followed by 0.9 percent growth in the U. K.8221 In addition, the only signs of growth appear to be a direct result of government spending, a notion that is evidenced by the latest retail sales and housing market data, both of which remain at depressed levels. 8220People are worried that the global recovery is based on unsustainable government spending and numbers like this from the U. K. only encourage those fears,8221 said one analyst in response. While government spending, meanwhile, is arguably a valuable tool for stimulating economic growth, analysts worry that it might be reaching the limits of feasibility. 8220The Office for National Statistics said the budget shortfall was 8 billion pounds (13.2 billion), the largest for July since records began in 1993.8221 On an annual basis, the government is planning to issue 220 Billion Pounds in new debt, to fund a budget deficit currently projected at 12.4 of GDP, easily the largest since World War II. The Bank of England8217s prescription for the country8217s economic woes are also provoking a backlash. When the Bank announced at its last monetary policy meeting that it would expand its quantitative easing program by 50 Billion Pounds, the markets were aghast. Imagine investor shock, when the minutes from that meeting were released last week, revealing that 3 dissenting governors were agitating for an even bigger outlay No less than Mervyn King, the head of the bank, 8220pushed to expand the central banks bond-purchase program to 200 billion pounds (329 billion). Given the dovishness that this implies, combined with an inflation rate that is rapidly approaching 0, investors have rightfully concluded that the Bank is nowhere near ready to raise interest rates. 8220The market was expecting the BOE to be one of the first to hike rates. It8217s becoming clear thats unlikely, undermining the pound,8221 conceded one economist. Interest rate futures reflect an expectation that the Bank will hold rates at least until next spring. LIBOR rates. meanwhile, just touched a record low. As a result, forecasts and bets on the Pound8217s decline now seem to be the rule. 8220BNP Paribas8230predicted another 9.3 percent decline to 1.50 in 12 months8230After the Bank of England decision, pound futures and options speculators became more pessimistic as weekly bets favoring sterling fell more than 32 percent, the most since November.8221 In short, 8220Sterling is over-priced at current levels.8221 The British Pound8217s rise since the beginning of March has been nothing short of spectacular: 8220Improving economic data have helped the pound advance 14 percent against the dollar this year and 12 percent against the euro.8221 Due primarily to a recovery in risk appetite and the concomitant belief that the Pound had been oversold following the onset of the credit crisis, investors began pouring hot money back into the UK. As recently as two weeks ago, one analyst intoned that, 8220Longer term, we are in part of an uptrend for the pound. I dont think this is over.8221 Since then, however, a series of negative developments have cast doubt on such optimism. The first was the release of economic data, which indicated an unexpected widening in Britain8217s trade deficit. While exports rose, imports rose even faster, causing analysts to wonder whether it would be realistic to expect the British economic recovery would be led by exports: 8220We remain skeptical that the U. K. is about to become an export-driven economy any time soon. A return to sustained growth continues to look unlikely in the near term,8221 said one economist. The second development was the decision by the Bank of England to expand its quantitative easing program. 8220The central bank spent 125 billion pounds since March as part of the asset-purchase program and had permission to use as much as 150 billion pounds, about 10 percent of Britains gross domestic product. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling has now authorized an extra 25 billion pounds.8221 This came as a huge shock to investors, which had collectively assumed that the program had already been concluded. Upon closer analysis, it appears that the rise of the Pound and the expanding trade deficit might have contributed to the BOE8217s decision: 8220According to the Banks rule of thumb. this the Pound8217s rise is equivalent to interest rate increases of 1.5 percentage points.8221 However, interest rates are already close to zero. The BOE has already conveyed its intention to maintain an easy monetary policy for the near-term (March 2018 interest rate futures reflect an expectation for a 75 basis point rate hike) otherwise, there is nothing else it could do on the interest rate front. 8220Unless the UK is ready to deflate its production costs heavily, it can only achieve required competitiveness by reducing the value of sterlingThe BoE knows this and its decision to increase its quantitative easing efforts may well have to be seen in the context of summer sterling strength.8221 The final factor has been the Dollar8217s sudden reversal. Previously, the Pound had been helped as much by UK optimism as by Dollar pessimism. This changed last week, when positive US economic data triggered expectations of a near-term economic recovery and consequent Fed rate hikes. In short, the Pound must now rest on its own two feet, and can no longer count on Dollar pessimism for a boost: 8220The current gloomy sentiment, which has chipped some 3 off sterling8217s value against the dollar in the past four trading days, represents a sharp turnaround .8221 The prognosis for UK economic recovery should receive some clarity tomorrow, when the Bank of England releases a report on inflation and GDP. At this point, we will have a better idea as to what to expect from the Pound going forward. If an investor only read the story, Pound a Buy Before Steep U. K. Recovery . they could be forgiven for assuming that the fundamentals underlying the Pound must be strong enough to just such a bold claim. In fact, virtually all economic indicators are trending downward, and most analysts (with the exception of the source behind the above story) are revising their Pound forecasts proportionately. While all data is subject to 8220spin,8221 all of the big picture indicators paint a consistently negative picture of the UK economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on June 24 that U. K. gross domestic product will shrink 4.3 percent this year, revising its March forecast for a 3.7 percent contraction. Sterling has fallen 1 percent in the past month. Meanwhile, unemployment is still rising (albeit at a slower pace than before), and prices are falling. The BOE will probably expand its liquidity program by the sanctioned 25 Billion Pounds, and 8220Speculation has also started to circulate that the Bank of England could announce it will seek approval from the Treasury to boost the size of the program even further.8221 Meanwhile, the government deficit is surging: The U. K.s credit rating is an issue thats still there and public spending in an election year is causing concern for investors. A sane analyst, then, could only come to one reasonable conclusion - that the Pound is doomed. In the short-term, the Pound will be punished by a weak economic prognosis, low interest rates, and the inflationary monetaryfiscal policy. Additionally, as the summer rolls in, investors will likely move funds outside of the UK into more stable locales. In the long-term, the Pound is equally dubious: 8220The pounds decline in 2008 returned the currency to its real trade-weighted exchange rate of the 1970s, which could be its 8216new fair value8217 as the U. K. becomes a net oil importer and is less able to rely on financial services to earn foreign exchange.8221 There is even less equivocation among investors, themselves. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 8220More hedge funds and large speculators have positioned for a decline in the pound against the dollar rather than a rise 8212 so-called net shorts 8212 every week since August.8221 While the Pound is currently trading around 1.65, 8220The median of 39 analysts and strategists forecasts compiled by Bloomberg is for the pound to trade at 1.59 by the end of September and 1.62 by the end of the year.8221 By coincidence, today8217s release of final GDP data confirms 8211 rather than negates 8211 the economic picture that I painted yesterday. 8220The economy slumped a downwardly revised 2.4 in the first quarter, which was narrowly the largest decline since the second quarter of 1958. The annual decline in output was 4.9, the largest since records began in 1948.8221 The news didn8217t affect the Pound, given that it refers to a period that ended a few months ago. At the same time, it revealed the seriousness of UK economic troubles and the depth of the hole that it must climb out of in order to achieve recovery. Of course, the Bank of England is doing its part to try to help the economy along: The minutes from its last meeting showed that the BOE 8220voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent and maintain its 125 billion pound quantitative easing programme, minutes showed on Wednesday.8221 Experts reckon that the BOE will probably continue to keep rates low. Unemployment remains high and output will likely remain well below its potential well into any economic recovery. One analyst argues, 8220Even if the recession is now over, inflation could keep falling until mid-2018. Which means that it should be below its 2 per cent target in late 2018 and early 2018. Because Bank rate is set with regard to where inflation will be in two years time 8211 as it takes that long for monetary policy to significantly affect prices 8211 this points to rates staying low for at least a few more months.8221 But the Bank8217s rate cuts are being offset by the Pound8217s recent 15 rise - its strongest quarterly performance in over 20 years. Based on some models, such a dramatic rise is equivalent in force to a 4 hike in interest rates. The quantitative easing program is also beset with problems, namely that 50 of the newly printed money has been used to purchase assetsbonds from foreign investors, which are more likely to take the money out of the British economy. The government, meanwhile, is probably out of options, and may have to even unwind some of its fiscal stimulus due to lack of funds. In fact, the 8220deterioration in the U. K.s public finances 8230prompted Standard amp Poors to warn on May 21 that the country could lose its AAA debt rating. The firm estimated the cost of propping up Britains banks at 100 billion pounds (166 billion) to 145 billion pounds and said government debts could double to almost 100 percent of gross domestic product by 2018.8221 The budget deficit in 2009 alone could surpass 15. In short, there is potentially more downside than upside to these efforts, especially as far as the Pound is concerned. The BOE8217s easy money policy makes the Pound an unattractive buy in the short term, while its QE program could stoke inflation in the long-term, without much benefit to the economy. Furthermore, it will be difficult to rein in this program because of the perennial budget deficits of the government, which 8220must sell about 900 billion pounds of gilts over five years8230The Bank of England will buy a third of these gilts.8221 The recent rise in government bond yields as well as the rising cost of bond insurance (i. e. credit default swap premiums) confirm that investors are growing increasingly nervous. According to a Harvard University historian. 8220The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three.8221 Still, there are optimists. Says one analyst, 8220The U. K. economy8217s heavy dependence on the finance sector, recently seen as a big flaw, has also turned into a benefit. 8216Sterling is basically a bet on global financial well-being.8217 8221 Also, 8220Foreign demand for gilts rose to an all-time high in the first quarter of this year as concern the world economy would stay mired in a recession drove investors to the relative safety of government securities.8221 But these notions are somewhat contradictory. When you map these ideas against the backdrop of the Pound, you can see that is benefited primarily from the perception of recovery - not from the safe-haven perception. These optimists believe the Pound will rise as high as 1.80 against the USD and 1.40 against the Euro. Under the best-case scenario, quantitative easing and government spending will trickle down to the bedrock of the economy, and will be unwound immediately after the economy enters a recovery period so as not to spur inflation. Under the worst-case scenario, though, the government will continue to run large budget deficits and fail to find enough buyers for its debt. The resulting stagflation would cause investors to rush for the exits and for the currency to collapse. In all likelihood, the actual outcome will fall somewhere in between. After a nearly 20 rise against the Dollar, the British Pound has been rangebound for nearly the entire month of June, with one columnist likening the situation to a 8220pause for breath.8221 For him, this amounts to a temporary cessation on the Pound8217s inevitable upward path: 8220Compared to long term levels, the pound was still better value than its peers. He said: 8216It8217s still cheap 8211 about 10 below it8217s trade-weighted average at present.8217 8221 For others analysts, however, the picture is not so cut-and-dried. Forgetting about purchasing power parity for a minute, there are numerous factors which could halt the Pound8217s rise. First and foremost is the British economy, which is still struggling to find its feet. 8220The U. K. economy will recover 8216mildly8217 next year, according to the OECD. compared with a previous projection of a 0.2 percent contraction. Gross domestic product will drop 4.3 percent this year, versus a March forecast of 3.7 percent.8221 Some economic indicators have begun to stabilize, but the two most important sectors, housing and finance, are still wobbly. Economists warn that 8220any recovery could be slow and uneven because banks are still unwilling to pump loans into the economy.8221 In the latest month for which data is available, mortgage lending slowed to a record low, with consumer lending not far behind. With regard to housing,8221The annual fall in house prices in England and Wales slowed for a third consecutive month in June, according to property data company Hometrack, but prices were still 8.7 percent lower than a year ago.8221 There is the possibility that the BOE8217s quantitative easing plan and the government8217s fiscal stimulus will provide the economy with the boost it needs. At the same time, both programs will have to be reined at some point, sooner rather than later in the case of government spending. With UK national debt predicted to reach 90 of GDP by 2018, 8220Most people 8211 the prime minister excepted, apparently 8211 believe that taxes will have to rise andor public spending fall after the next election. This would at least threaten to hold back economic activity.8221 Not to mention that both QE and government spending could actually backfire and generate inflation without economic growth (i. e. stagflation). BOE Governor Mervyn King captured this overall sentiment, when he said, I feel more uncertain now than ever. This is not the pattern of a recession coming into recovery that weve seen since the 1930s.8221 In short, from a purely economic standpoint, it doesn8217t look good for the Pound Sterling. But of course forex is about much more than GDP8230stay tuned for Part 2, in which I8217ll elaborate on this point, and bring interest rates and inflation into the discussion. You may have noticed that the phrase 8220seven month high8221 appears quite frequently in recent Forex Blog posts, regardless of the currency being discussed. I offer this preface as context for Pound8217s recent rally because it suggests that the factors driving the Pound are hardly unique from the factors driving other currencies. In other words, 8220It8217s a mixture of a dollar-weakness story and a global-growth story.8221 Of course, it would it be unfair to so glibly dismiss the Pound, so let8217s look at the underlying picture. On the macro-level, the British economy is still anemic: 8220Gross domestic product dropped 1.9 percent in the latest quarter, the most since 1979, according to the Office for National Statistics. The International Monetary Fund now expects the British economy to shrink by 4.1 percent in 2009.8221 Without drilling too far into the data, suffice it to say that most of the indicators tell a similar story. The only relative bright spots are the housing market and financial sector. Mortgage applications are rising, and there is evidence that housing prices are slowing in their descent, perhaps even nearing a bottom. Optimists, naturally, are arguing that this signals the entire economy is turning around. History and common sense, however, suggest that even if the most recent data is not a blip, it8217s still unlikely that the UK will able to depend on the housing sector to drive future growth. Besides, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that foreign buying (due to favorable exchange rates) is propping up real estate prices, rather than a change in market fundamentals. The stabilization of financial markets is also good for the UK, as 13 of its economy is connected to the financial sector. 8220Sterling is basically a bet on global financial well-being 8230Now that the banking sector has stepped away from the Armageddon scenario, the prospects for London and the U. K. economy look better.8221 But as with housing, it8217s unlikely that the financial sector will return to the glory days, in which case the UK will have to turn elsewhere in its search for growth. What about the Bank of England8217s heralded attempt at Quantitative easing While it8217s still to early to draw conclusions, the initial data is not good. In fact, the most recent data indicates that half of the bonds that the BOE bought last month (with freshly minted cash) were from foreign buyers, which causes inflation without any of the economic benefits from an increase in the domestic flow of money. Given that SampP recently downgraded the outlook for UK credit ratings, it8217s no surprise that foreigners are moving towards the exits. In short, 8220With underlying weakness in money and credit 8211 plus large gilt sales by overseas investors 8211 we doubt that quantitative easing is playing much direct role in the economy8217s possible turnaround,8221 summarized one analyst. If you ask me, the Pound rally is grounded in nothing other than naive technical analysis, which relies on indicators that are largely self-fulfilling. In other words, if the Pound seems like it should rise, than it probably will, simply as a result of investor perception. 8220Citigroup Inc. said in a report last week the pound is 8216among the most undervalued major currencies 82308217 Binary Options Plc predicts it will rise as much as 18 percent against the dollar and 11 percent versus the euro in the coming year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 23 percent gain versus the dollar and 15 percent advance against the euro.8221 Call me skeptical, but it8217s hard to understand what kind of analysis underlies these predictions other than simple intuition. Sure the Pound was probably oversold, but is a 20 rise is two months really justified The U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data indicated a slight downtick, but 8220big speculative players continue to hold large net short positions in the pound versus the dollar,8221 which suggests that the savviest investors are not yet sold on the rally. Emerging markets offer growth and higher yield. Commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, rise in line with energy and commodity prices. Someone please tell me where the Pound fits into this The Pound is holding its own against the USD, even touching a four-month high last week. But against other major currencies, the story is just the opposite. While managing to avoid parity against the Euro, for example, the Pound has nonetheless remained range-bound against the common currency. The Australian Dollar, meanwhile, has risen to 2 against the Pound for the first time in 13 years . How to explain the stagnation of the Pound It depends on which currency pair you look at. Against the Dollar, the narrative remains one of risk aversion when stocks rise, so usually does the Pound. 8220The U. K. pound is joining other currencies in beating up on the dollar ,8221 announced one analyst on a day that stocks and commodities rallied broadly. The Pound has also been able to hold its own against the Dollar because both currencies8217 Central banks have embarked on similar quantitative easing plans, which could prove equally inflationary in the long run. Chart courtesy of Economist . In fact, the Bank of England just announced a huge expansion in its program, increasing total debt buying (i. e. money printing) by 50 Billion. One analyst summarized the impact of this announcement on forex markets as follows: 8220The Bank of Englands aggressive stance with regard to quantitative easing is adding to concern about the economy and that is negative for sterling.8221 Not much nuance there8230. In fact, this is especially bad for the Pound against the Euro, where a juxtaposition of the Central Banks8217 respective approaches to the credit crisis reveals stark differences: 8220The weakness in the pound suggests the market is drawing a contrast between the ECB, which seems to be dragging its legs on quantitative easing, and the BOE, which is still 8216full-steam ahead .8217 8221 Where the ECB is providing liquidity indirectly in the form of swaps and guarantees, the BOE is printing money and injecting it right into capital markets. 8220Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, has said the exit strategy will be dictated by the outlook for inflation and that central banks should not support markets that cannot survive on their own,8221 but investors remain skeptical and for good reason. 8220Britain will sell a record 220 billion pounds of gilts this fiscal year, 50 percent more than last year.8221 Based on the fact that yields have risen for four straight weeks (against the backdrop of the first 8220failed8221 auction ever for UK government bonds), there is doubt that the government can finance its deficits. The BOE continues to be roundly smacked with criticism, for its role in fomenting the credit crisis and in not adequately responding to it: 8220It happens that in the early years of inflation targeting. it did produce a stable economy. But I think it8217s now clear that it can8217t, by itself, produce a stable economy,8221 argued one commentator. Unemployment rates in the UK remain at frighteningly high levels. The government8217s own economists (which are more optimistic than third-party forecasts ) forecast GDP at -3.5 for 2009, with a modest recovery in 2018. Of course, these forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, as they hinge on the crucial assumption that the BOE8217s interest rate cuts and quantitative easing plan will soon trickle down through the economy, proof of which has still not been observed. As a result, I8217m personally between neutral and bearish for the UK Pound. For as long as stocks continue to rally, investors will remain Adistracted. If and when the rally loses steam (I am skeptical that the rally is sustainable), they will quickly turn their attention to comparative economic and monetary conditions suffice it to say that Pound won8217t stack up well. The British Pound recently touched a 3-month high against the US Dollar, and market players are betting the currency8217s run will continue: 8220Traders are paying a 0.25 percentage-point premium for one - week call options on the pound relative to puts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.8221 In other words, more investors believe the Pound will rise than believe it will fall. The Pound is faring especially well against the Euro, and the possibility of parity is becoming increasingly remote. 8216There are more and more people thinking there will be prolonged declines in the euro. especially against the pound,8217 8221 summarized one analyst. Bulls attribute the sudden strength to an improvement in the real estate market. 8220A survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) found that new inquiries in the housing market had increased for the fifth consecutive month in March, 8221 en route to breaching a six-year high. Mortgage lending, which would necessarily be required to support this increased demand, are also rising, albeit from an 8220abysmal low.8221 Meanwhile, prices are still falling in the majority of markets, and real estate agents remain pessimistic. The economic picture is still grim. A review of the UK economic timeline reveals that while the financial sector seems to have (been) stabilized, most economic indicators continue to trend downwards. 8220Economists predict the Treasury will anticipate a 3-3.5 percent slowdown in the economy this year, much more than a forecast in November for a 0.75-1.25 percent slowdown.8221 The budget is scheduled to be released later this week, and analysts expect a wide budget deficit that will need to be fueled by an increase in borrowing andor the printing of new money. Speaking of which, the Bank of England is in the same position as its counterparts in the EU and US, which implies that the Pound should be trading at a consistent level with the Dollar and Euro. In short, it8217s difficult to ascertain whether the Pound8217s recent upside is a product of technical factors or a genuine improvement in the fundamental situation. On the technical side, the currency had probably become oversold from irrational risk aversion, and the current rally could represent a pullback. Until there is definitive evidence that the British economy has turned the corner andor that the BOE plan shows signs of success, I would advise skepticism. Since touching a fresh 24-year low in the beginning of March, the British Pound has recovered strongly, rising 5 against the USD in a matter of days. Analysts are at a loss to explain the sudden strength of the Pound, outside the confines of the safe-haven hypothesis: The risk premium that sterling has taken on works both ways, and you can see sterling outperforming whenever risk appetite picks up . As another analyst points out, however, ascertaining the role of risk aversion in the markets has become somewhat circular. 8220Observers8230draw this assessment purely from price action. Rising equities means the market is less risk averse. And the way we know there is less risk adversity is that the stocks have rallied.8221 Applying this argument to forex, softening risk aversion is contributing to a stronger Pound. At the same time, observers point to the rising Pound as a signal that risk aversion has softened. In short, the safe-haven trade is surely not the most convincing explanation. In fact, by all accounts, the Pound should be falling. The latest data shows that retail sales plunged by 1.9 on a monthly basis. GDP is projected to fall to such an extent that 8220in 2009 Britain will slip to 12th place (from 7th in 2007) among the 15 8216old8217 members of the European Union, behind all except Spain, Greece and Portugal.8221 Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the UK has warned that Britain8217s government finances have become so fragile that the government will have difficulty carrying out new spending plans. Investors have taken note, and demand for the latest auction of UK government bonds is believed to be the 8220lowest in history .8221 Given all the bad news, perhaps the Pound8217s recent rise can be best attributed to technical factors. 8220The 1.45 level represents so-called resistance on a descending trend line connecting the January high of 1.5373 and the February peak of 1.4986.8221 Given that the Pound has since sunk back below 1.45, it can be reasonably discerned that a cluster of sell orders were executed at this level. Over the longer-term, the prognoses for the UK economy generally, and the Pound specifically, are not good. Thanks to a low exchange rate, inflation is actually rising. It is perhaps a welcome development, since it indicates that the UK was (temporarily) averted deflation, but it could also be a product of the quantitative easing plan announced earlier this month, whereby the Bank of England will flood the banking system with newly minted money. 8220Such a tactic can dilute the currency. and the perception that such dilution is about to occur is dragging the Pound down right now.8221 Yesterday, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of the UK cut their benchmark interest rates to record lows. This is especially incredible in the case of the UK, whose Central Bank over 300 years old You can see from the following chart that both Central Banks have more than made up for their respectively slow starts in easing monetary policy by effecting several dramatic rate cuts, following the example of the Federal Reserve. The baseline UK rate now stands at .5, only slightly higher than the Federal Funds rate, and slightly lower than the 1.5 ECB rate. Given that they have essentially reached the terminus of their monetary policy options, all three Central Banks are exploring further options aimed at pumping money into their respective economies. The Fed has already 8220announced a program to buy 100 billion in the direct obligations of housing related government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan banks and 500 billion in mortgage-based securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.8221 As I wrote in a related article, 8220this was quickly followed by repurchase programs, lending facilities, investments in money market funds, and option agreements, all of which were designed to supplement its 8216traditional open market operations and securities lending to primary dealers.8217 The Feds efforts also worked to ease the liquidity shortage in credit markets abroad by entering into swap agreements with several foreign Central Banks suffering from acute Dollar shortages.8221 In conjunction with the rate cut, the Bank of the UK, meanwhile, will pump 150bn directly into UK credit markets through liquidity support, buying public and private debt, and asset purchases. 8220The main purpose of quantitative easing is not to send the money supply into orbit but to stop it from crashing8230the broad money held by households has risen at a worryingly slow rate over the past year, and holdings by private non-financial firms have actually been dropping.8221 In contrast to the monetary programs of the UK and US, the ECB has thus far refrained from the kind of liquidity support that would necessitate printing new money. Instead, 8220the central bank will continue offering euro-zone banks unlimited loans at the central bank8217s policy rate until at least the end of this year.8221 The interest rate cuts were announced simultaneously with a spate of macroeconomic data, which collectively paint a bleak picture. Eurozone growth is projected at -2.7 for 2009 and 0 for 2018. The current unemployment rate at 8.2 and climbing. The thorn in the side of the EU is represented by eastern Europe, where growth is falling at an alarming pace, dragging the EU down with it. While EU member states have pledged to intervene if one of their own falls into bankruptcy, it8217s unlikely that they would intervene similarly if a non-EU member state went bust. The UK economy is similarly desperate, having contracted at an annualized rate of 5.8 in the most recent quarter. The wild cards are the real estate and financial sectors, the fortunes of which are increasingly intertwined. So what do the forex markets have to say about all this Economists have used the dual phenomena of risk aversion and deflation to explain the interminable weakness in the the Pound and Euro. Everyone is surely familiar with the notion of the US as 8220safe haven8221 during periods of global financial instability. The deflation hypothesis, meanwhile, suggests that the ECB (and to a lesser extent, the Bank of UK), fell behind the curve when easing liquidity. The ECB, especially has harped on inflation as a reason for cutting rates more quickly. Given that investors are now more concerned with capital preservation than price inflation, it follows that they would prefer to invest where Central Banks were more vigilant about deflation (i. e. the US). Personally, I think that the continued declines in both currencies, in spite of steep interest rate cuts, indicates that the deflation hypothesis is bunk, and investors remain fixated on risk aversion. By no coincidence, the temporary rebound in US stocks that took place in January was also accompanied by a bump in the Euro. (See chart below). I think this mindset is reasonable, but only in the short-term. Given the current economic environment, I don8217t think investors (and currency traders) can be faulted for ignoring the possibility that quantitative easing and liquidity programs will have to be funded with the printing of new money, which would be inherently inflationary. Many comparisons are being made with Japan, whose ill-fated quantitative-easing program succeeded only in inflating a bond-market bubble and vastly increasing Japanese public debt. According to one columnist. 8220it8217s hard to argue that quantitative easing ended deflation high oil prices did that. Meanwhile, the economy cured on its own most of the structural problems such as excess capacity and too much debt associated with the deflationary environment.8221 In short, with a medium and long-term investing horizon in mind, I think the ECB8217s approach to dealing with the credit crisis is more conducive to monetary stability. Thus, when investors grow weary of the idea of US as safe haven, they will no doubt focus instead on fundamentals. At which point, the ECB will likely be rewarded for fulfilling its anti-inflation mandate, in the form of a stronger Euro. Since the inception of the credit crisis, perhaps no currency has been beaten down more than the British Pound, with0160analysts0160bitterly divided about whether the currency will fall further. A lot depends on whether the British efforts to save its devastated banking sector are successful.0160The government0160has already moved to nationalize the Bank of Scotland, and is quickly moving to shore up the capital positions of other0160vulnerable banks. Experts point to the Pound39s historic volatility, however, as an indication that investors have always fled, and will continue to flee the UK in times of uncertainty. Jim Rogers, whose partner George Soros famously quotbrokequot the Bank of England in 1992, forecasts a bleak future, although0160his motives0160are questionable.0160Ultimately, the fate of the Pound is entirely relative, as is the case with all currencies. In other words, if investors suddenly changed their minds about the perceived stability of the Dollar and Yen, the Pound could quickly recover. Business Week reports: As investors begin to renew their focus on the problems of other economies, the pressure on sterling may ease. The selling could turn to buying if investors suddenly decide they39d rather take a little risk to earn return, rather than watching their cash evaporate. Last week, the British Pound recorded its strongest performance against both the Dollar and Euro in nearly 20 years, on the basis of both technical and fundamental factors. On the surface, the Bank of England interest rate cut that prompted the rally would seem to be be negative for the Pound, since lower yield makes Britain a less attractive place to invest. On a deeper level, the relative modesty of the rate cut signalled to investors that the Bank of England is conscious of currency markets (the record decline in the Pound in 2008) when carrying out monetary policy. In addition, the0160BOE39s proactive0160response to0160the credit crisis dwarfs the0160actions of the European Central Banks, which risks falling further behind the curve. In other words, investors began to question why they were pushing the Euro close to parity, when the economic fundamentals aren39t much better in the EU than in the UK. Bloomberg News reports: quotThe euro fundamentals are looking increasingly shaky, quot0160said a currency strategist. quotIt39s clearer than ever the ECB has seriously misjudged the dire situation the region now finds itself in. quot As investors gradually re-acquaint themselves with risk-taking, the interest rate story is once again dominating forex markets. For the last few weeks, this meant that investors were taking advantage of record-low US interest rates to fund carry trades in riskier currencies. Most recently, however, investors have begun to focus on the interest rate picture on the other side of the Atlantic. The Bank of UK just lowered rates to 1.5 and is quotthreateningquot to match the Fed by dropping rates all the way to zero. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is probably on the cusp of a similar interest rate cut. As commodity prices have relaxed and the credit crunch has slowed the expansion of the money0160 supply, the ECB is firmly justified in cutting rates, under the pretext of fulfilling its mandate, which is to guard against inflation. The upshot is that interest rate differentials, which have been fueling the Dollar39s recent decline, may become less pronounced over the next year. Bloomberg News reports: quotThere is increasingly more room for the ECB to be more aggressive on rate cuts. That will naturally put more pressure on the euro from an interest-rate differential perspective. We39re seeing interest-rate differentials really come back into play in terms of a currency driver. quot In recent years, the idea of parity seemed to pop up repeatedly in forex markets. First, the Canadian Dollar breached the mythical 1:1 barrier against the USD then, it looked as though the Australian Dollar would follow suit. The most recent battle for parity is being waged across the Atlantic Ocean, between the British Pound and the Euro. Both economic and monetary circumstances favor the Euro, as the housing crisis pummeled the UK economy and the UK Central Bank subsequently embarked on a steep program of monetary easing. The Euro has probably also received a boost from the perception that the EU is one of the most stable economies and investing locales, outside of the US. In any event, investors tend to get carried away with psychological milestones and ignore economic fundamentals, which means the Euro could quickly achieve parity, before pulling back. The Wall Street Journal reports: On Monday, one euro briefly bought almost 98 pence, a new record. That paves the way for parity as early as this week, wrote Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. The British Pound has fallen so sharply in 2008 that parity with the Euro isn39t that far-fetched. The problem is that the UK economy now closely mirrors that of the US, minus the perceived quotsafe havenquot aspects. In fact, the UK now has a twin deficits problem of its own, with a trade imbalance that exceeds 4 of GDP and government spending set to rise in response to the credit crisis. Meanwhile, UK interest rates have already been reduced drastically, and could fall all the way to zero, again mirroring the US. The combination of cheap money and higher imports is raising the specter of inflation, and frightening away foreign investors. Under ordinary circumstances, a cheaper Pound could be an effective remedy for recession, but when the entire global economy is reeling, it probably can39t accomplish much. The Telegraph reports: Even though sterling has fallen, exports orders remain weak. Competitive devaluations rarely work. But they have no chance of when the rest of the world is slowing too. The British Pound has already fallen 25 against the Dollar, since the credit crisis kicked off earlier this year. On a technical basis, therefore, it would seem that the Pound is due for a rally. From the standpoint of economic fundamentals however, the picture is quite bleak. While the Bank of England8217s recent 150 basis point interest rate cut could help restore the UK economy to solid footing, it sent a massive shock to investors. UK interest rates now stand at a 50-year low, and futures prices suggest that the benchmark rate will fall another 1 in the next 12 months. In addition, the Bank of England has not ruled out ruling interest rates all the way to zero. As unlikely as this scenario may be, investors are now fully aware of the scope of Britain8217s economic troubles. The next couple weeks could be make-or-break for the Pound, as a series of economic data releases, as well as the minutes from the latest BOE meeting, will help investors craft a more accurate forecast. Daily FX reports: Housing, industrial trends, consumer spending and public borrowing readings8230provide additional confirmation that this evolving recession will be far worse than the slump of 1992. Last week, the Bank of England acquieced to the seriousness of the credit crisis by cutting its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points - the largest margin in nearly two decades. While the move was intended to restore confidence in the UK economy and its financial markets, the opposite result obtained. In other words, investors interpreted the rate cut as an indication that the UK economic situation is even more precarious than was initially feared. In fact, this bearish sentiment is born out by economic data, which shows falling home prices and rising unemployment. Since peaking against the Dollar late last year, the British Pound has since declined 25. The British Pound is perhaps one of the worst victims of the credit crunch, having fallen 25 against the USD in the year-to-date. According to analysts, hedge funds deserve much of the blame. Apparently, most hedge funds, including those that are based in the UK, denominate their portfolios in terms of Dollars. As a result of the exodus away from emerging markets, such funds have found themselves awash in cash, which they have promptly converted into Dollars. The reasoning behind this investment strategy is twofold: first, as the incredible strength of the Dollar has illustrated, the prevailing wisdom among investors is that the US is currently the least risky place to invest. Second, the interest rate gap between the US and the rest of the world looks set to narrow, which means the yields on US security will become relatively attractive. The Telegraph reports: Worldwide interest rate forecasts are being revised downward, which has increased interest in the US where rates have already been slashed. The bad news is piling up in the US: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in such dire shape that they will require the assistance of the US government merely to stay afloat. Meanwhile, Lehman Brothers, a large investment bank, is quickly crumbling a la Bear Stearns and could require a similar bailout. Fortunately for the US, the news across the Atlantic is just as bad, and getting worse. The median estimate for Eurozone GDP growth has been revised downward to an anemic 1.4 in 2008 and 1.2 in 2009. Analysts are speculating that the ECB will finally have to lower rates in order to prime the EU economy, and perhaps the Bank of UK will have to lower rates for a second time. It looks like this Dollar rally still has legs. Reuters reports: Euro zone economic uncertainty was quotparticularly high, quot the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said after the ECB left its interest rates at 4.25 percent on Thursday. When one hears the phrase quothousing crisisquot uttered, the US immediately comes to mind. Not without reason, of course, since the US housing market is the largest in the world, and the scope of any US housing crisis is sure to dwarf a comparable crisis in any other country, in absolute terms. At the same time, let8217s not forget that prices in the UK, for example, began to decline earlier than in the US. In addition, as one columnist points out, the impact of the UK housing crisis may be relatively greater on the UK economy. While some of the statistics he quotes are dubious, housing and consumer debt (on a per capita basis) may in fact be larger in the UK than in the US. As a result, the ongoing correction in housing prices would be expected to punish the UK more than the US. The story could be the same for the Pound, vis-a-vis the US Dollar. Money amp Markets reports: One analyst is8230a long-term bear on the British pound and believes any rallies in the currency represent an opportunity to enter short at a better price. Selling the pound against the dollar with a 10-12 month time frame may present one of the best opportunities in the currency markets today. Read More: UK Housing Bust Spells Trouble for Pound The US Federal Reserve Bank is known for ambiguity and vagueness. The Bank of England, it appears, is not trying to emulate this approach. The Bank put an end to speculation about its near-term monetary policy by announcing that it does not plan to cut interest rates for at least two years. Apparently, inflation has breached the Bank8217s 2 target, and its internal models are forecasting that it won8217t be until 2018 that price inflation returns to a more palatable rate. This is bad news for the British economy, which is in the throes of an economic downturn precipitated by the housing crisis and would surely benefit from a loosening of monetary policy. By extension, the British Pound should also suffer a quotcorrection, quot as a combination of inflation and lack of suitable investment opportunities will send investors rushing for the exits. The Financial Times reports: Mr King contrasted his position and its focus on controlling inflation with that of Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve. We did not fall prey to the sirens to cut interest rates further as some other central banks have done, he said. The anecdotal evidence for surging retail interest in forex is cropping up everywhere. Moreover, investors are no longer even limiting themselves to the spot market, utilizing derivatives to speculate on future exchange rates. In the UK, for example, 10 of investors intending to purchase real estate in the EU are utilizing forward agreements to hedge their exposure to the Euro, which has risen 10 against the Pound since the beginning of 2008. Evidently, prospective home buyers are hoping that the Euro returns to 2007 levels, which would significantly lower the cost of buying property there. However, if the Euro continues to appreciate, such investors could end up losing more than they bargained for. Homes Worldwide reports: Even the movement in the markets over a couple of days can make the difference between owning a property and no longer being able to afford it. As we wrote last week, the direction of the Dollar may be influenced more by external economic events rather than by internal activity. Accordingly, it would behoove forex traders to direct their attention away from the Fed and towards the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both of which face important monetary policy decisions later in the month. With regard to the Bank of England, futures markets have priced in a 23 chance that rates will be cut by 25 basis points. In the case of the ECB, the markets are expecting rates to be maintained at current levels. However, analysts will be scrutinizing the Banks8217 respective press releases and monitoring other developments in this area due to the implications for the US-EU-Britain interest rate differential. Reuters reports: Some analysts think that hawkish comments from Trichet will be brushed aside with weaker economic data leading to the prospect of falling euro zone rates later in the year. The British Pound has been reeling since the Bank of England cut rates at the beginning of this month, from 5.75 to 5.50. Last week, the minutes for the meeting were released. They revealed that that members of the Bank were growing increasingly nervous about the state of the British economy and are worrying particularly about how fallout from the credit crunch will impact growth. British interest rates are still among the highest in the industrialized world, behind only Australia and New Zealand. Thus, it seems investors are punishing the Pound indirectly for the rate cuts, because of fears concerning the near-term prognosis for the British economy. At the same time, the minutes indicated that members of the Bank were adamant about not lowering rates further, so some of the concerns may be overblown. Read More: Pound weakens after BoE minutes show concerns for growth The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.00 at its meeting his week. The Bank of England is also expected to hold its lending rate in place, at 5.75. While these two moves should be seen by Dollar bulls as acts of clemency, they are more akin to a stay of execution than to a commutation of its death sentence. The reasoning is that it is inevitable that the US-EU interest rate difference will be bridged over the next few months, as the Fed continues to lower rates while the ECB is in the process of hiking them. The only question is when. Accordingly, analysts will be paying close attention to the language employed by the heads of the various Central Banks at their next meetings to get a sense of timing. The UK Pound has been on a tear recently, both against the USD and more surprisingly, against the Euro. The currency has been given a boost by the Bank of Englands reluctance to cut its benchmark interest rate, which at 5.75, remains the highest among the worlds major currencies. However, many economists feel the case for a rate cut is growing stronger every month, whether or not the Bank of England is willing to acknowledge it. Inflation is only moderately high, while the fall in housing prices-exacerbated by a prolonged period of tight money-threatens to drag down the entire economy. The markets are still pricing in a rate cut by year-end, which would surely drag down the Pound should it obtain. Dow Jones Newswires reports: We strongly suspect that market pessimism in this respect will continue to grow, in reverse proportions to its expectations of a further hike in U. K. interest rates, saida senior currency strategist. The Central Bank of the UK will likely lower interest rates at its next meeting, following the lead of the Fed. The most recent British economic data indicated that inflation has fallen to its lowest level in over a year. Moreover, UK (and European for that matter) monetary policy prioritizes price stability over employment, by unofficially targeting an inflation benchmark. Thus, without regard to economic growth, the Bank of UK will adjust interest rates accordingly. While the Pound-Dollar exchange rate is less sensitive to relative interest rates, the Pound has already fallen against the Euro, since the two countries compete over foreign capital. Bloomberg News reports: quotThe move down is probably going to continue. Sterling will remain under pressure. If any major central bank is going to emulate the Fed and cut rates, it8217s going to be the BOE.8221 Although the British pound suffered earlier in the week from a large Bank of England loan, the currency has been lifted due to a survey taken by UK manufacturers. The results of the survey, which inquired about their order books, showed that manufacturers were more successful this month than they8217ve been in over a decade. Analysts did not expect such a promising report, as it proved that the UK is handling global credit problems better than most countries. According to Forbes: The Confederation of British Industry revealed that a balance of 9 pct of firms polled reported that their order books were above normal in August 8211 the highest level for more than 12 years. Although it is not known whether the Bank of England loaned 314 million to one borrower or many yesterday, the effects were still the same. A one-day loan of such magnitude weakened the domestic currency, if only temporarily. As experts point out, this isn8217t entirely unusual and the economy has survived much larger Bank of England loans. Reports Forbes: Significantly more than 314 mln stg this sic has been borrowed in one day in the recent past 8212 for example nearly 4 bln stg on June 29 and 2 bln on July 2, he George Buckley added. The Bank of England raised interest rates for the second time in as many months yesterday, to 5.75. As a result, the UK has widened its lead over the US as the country with the highest interest rates in the industrialized world, after New Zealand. Moreover, the UK is becoming an increasingly viable alternative to the US as a target for risk-averse investors. The British Pound is hovering around a record high against the USD, which can probably expect to suffer prolonged decline against the worlds majors if it falls behind in attracting risk-free foreign capital. The Financial Times reports: The statement accompanying the rate hike gives few firm clues as to future interest rate movements, with the Bank of Englandconcluding that the risks to the inflation outlook are still tilted to the upside. Since the beginning of 2007, the Bank of England has raised Britains benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, to 5.50. While the Bank voted earlier this month to maintain rates at current levels, many analysts are speculating that it will resume hiking rates again in July. A recent spate of economic data has supported the notion that Britains economy is on stable ground. As a result, the specter of inflation is once again looming, and the Bank, which has a reputation for monetary hawkishness, will be quick to act if inflation stays above the Banks comfort level. While the rate hike could certainly put a damper on Britain8217s economy, it is likely to feed continued short-term interest in the Pound, is a viable risk-free alternative to the USD. Since 1992, two macroeconomic events had not occurred in Britain: price inflation has no exceeded 3 annually and the British Pound has not surpassed the 2 barrier. Both events were realized today, however, as an early-morning release of economic data indicated inflation in Britain was hovering around 3.1 and the British Pound quickly rose above 2 USDPound. Interest rate futures also witnessed an immediate correction, to the extent that the markets are now pricing in a British benchmark interest rate of 5.75 6 months from now. 5 above the current rate. Meanwhile, US inflation statistics were dovish, suggesting the gap between British and US interest rates is set to widen, which should propel the Pound further upwards. The Financial Times reports: There is little that is inevitable about currencies moving in line with expected interest rates and nothing in long-term trends that allows people to predict currency movements in connection with inflation and other variables. But on Tuesday, the currencies moved exactly as if they were linked to the inflation figures by an umbilical cord. Today saw the release of the 8216minutes8217 from last month8217s meeting of the UK Central Reserve Bank, revealing that members of the Bank8217s monetary policy committee voted 7-2 to hold rates at their current levels. That there were two dissenting votes is confirmation to some economists that the Bank is planning to hike rates again in the near-term, perhaps as soon as March. British short-term interest rates, at 5.25 are already on par with American rates, and another rate hike would further lessen the appeal of risk-averse investment in America. Investors will be eying inflation data closely over the coming weeks, which could provide the impetus for a rate hike at the next meeting. The British Pound received a boost today when the Central Bank of England raised interest rates to 5.25, which represents parity with American interest rates. The move shocked investors and traders who expected the Bank to leave rates unchanged. Risk-averse investors are now fully incentivized to move funds to Britain since interest rate levels there are now among the most competitive in the industrialized world. Further, as the British economy still hasnt peaked, it is possible that the Bank of England will raise rates further. Meanwhile, investors are already speculating as to when the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy, at which point it will officially be more attractive to invest in Britain. Either way, it seems the USD is in for a long and bumpy ride. The Financial Times reports: The move sparked speculation that data next Tuesday could show December UK consumer price index inflation rising above Novembers 2.7 per cent reading, since the committee would have had those figures in their possession. As the British Pound hovers around a 14-year high against the USD, economists have begun to assess the implications. The most obvious consequence is that UK exports will become less attractive to buyers in the US, which is one of Britains primary export markets. Along the same lines, British people may begin funneling some of their consumption and investment dollars into the US to take advantage of comparatively lower prices in the US. Many analysts are predicting that this sudden inflow of British capital into the US will halt the decline of the USD against the Pound. The savviest investors have already begun to lock in the current exchange rate to hedge against a reversal. The Finance Daily reports: Forward contracts are a great way for people looking to move to the US to take advantage of the favourable exchange rate. In essence, a 8216forward contract8217 means that you can buy the currency now and pay for it later. The Pound is closing in on a two-year high against the USD en route to crossing the mythical barrier of 2 USD. Many traders and economists believe that it is only a matter of time before this threshold is breached - that it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This month, the Bank of England raised short-term interest rates to 5, bridging the gap with US rates and eroding one of the last pillars that is propping up the USD. Once interest rates converge, many short term investors will likely shift funds out of US capital markets, and the USD will adjust to more closely reflect economic fundamentals. The Pound has been idling near a multi-year high against the USD for several months now, but it cant seem to break through the psychological resistance of 1.90. Against that backdrop, the Central Bank of the UK raised interest rates this week by 25 basis points, to 5. This leaves UK rates potentially one rate hike away from parity with American rates, which seem more likely to be lowered than raised, given current circumstances. Narrowing interest rate differentials may remove the last barrier that has stood in the way of a broad-based USD decline. Perhaps, risk-averse investors will begin shifting some of their capital out of the US, and into UK and Europe, which is also in the midst of raising rates. The Financial Times reports: The statement of the UK Central Bank did not give any clear signals as to the future path of UK interest rates and as such came as a disappointment to sterling bulls given the high probability that was attached to a follow-up rate rise in the first quarter of 2007. In recent years, the British Pound and the Euro have begun to converge in value, so much so that both currencies have traded within 5 of each other for almost a year now. There are a couple of explanations for this trend. First, the relationship between the Pound and the Euro are largely symbolic. Perhaps, investors are grouping the two currencies together because of some perceived economic andor political similarities. Second, it seems that all of the currencies that are supported by any semblance of sound economic fundamentals have risen against the USD, so it is possible that the Pound-Euro convergence is simply the result of both currencies simultaneously appreciating against the USD. Monetary policy and economic cycles are not aligned in Europe and Britain, so it doesnt seem this link has any strong fundamental basis. Whatever the reason, in all aspects except for in name, the Pound has officially been absorbed into the Euro. The Financial Times reports: From the euros launch in January 1999 until 2003, the pound initially traded in a wide 21.1 per cent range against the euro. Since then, volatility has been significantly reduced with the trading range falling to 8.6 per cent in 2004 and 7.1 in 2005. Traders bullish on the British Pound have been waiting anxiously for economic data to be released that would provide an impetus for the Central Bank of Britain to raise interest rates. On Tuesday, they got their wish, as a flurry of data revealed British price levels are slowly creeping up. Despite sagging energy prices, core inflation is running at an annualized rate of 2.4, and retail sales are up nearly 4 in 2006. The new consensus is for the UK Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, which is scheduled for November. The Financial Times reports: By mid-afternoon in New York, the pound was 0.5 per cent higher at a one-week high of 1.8700 against the dollar and up 0.4 per cent to 0.6707 against the euro. The two most important Central Banks in Europe independently raised interest rates today. The European Central Bank (ECB) was first to announce a rate hike, in a move that was widely predicted by investors. The Central Bank of UK, however, caught most investors completely off guard when it announced a rate hike of its own. It appears to be a coincidence that both banks raised rates on the same day, as the economic policies of the UK and of Europe are not entirely related. The news made USD bulls nervous on two fronts: first, the narrowing of interest rate differentials means it is more attractive to move capital to Europe. Second, and less obvious, is the implication that growth is picking up in Europe, at the very moment it is slowing down in the US. The Financial Times reports: Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president said that if the eurozone economy performed as the bank expected, a progressive withdrawal of monetary accommodation will be warranted. Yesterday, I reported that Central Banks are becoming more transparent in matters of monetary policy. As if on cue, today the European Central Bank and Bank of England offered separate insight into the directions of their respective interest rates. The ECB hinted that it would likely raise interest rates twice in the next year from the current level of 2.25, while the Bank of England indicated that a cut in its interest rates would take place in March. The corresponding changes in interest rate differentials should benefit the Euro and hurt the British Pound. Reuters reports: But some analysts see U. S. rate rises stopping there. The latest report about the ECB is seen as likely to boost the euro. Its a reminder that not only the Fed but also the ECB is raising interest rates, said one currency strategist. The US Federal Reserve Bank is currently in the process of raising interest rates. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are preparing to begin implementing tighter monetary policies at unknown dates in the short term. The Bank of England, however, is moving in the opposite direction, having recently announced that it may cut rates in the first half of 2006. The Bank of England is caught in the unenviable position of trying to simultaneously manage a housing bubble, rising inflation, and slowing growth. Previously, Britains Central Bank had prioritized housing and price stability. This latest announcement, however, represents a change in tack. As investors price in the possibility of multiple rate hikes, the UK Sterling should add to its 6 decline against the USD so far this year. Bloomberg News reports: The market was always complacent about the performance of the U. K. economy, said a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland. Commentsplay into the hands of a bad performance for sterling against the dollar next year. In a recent report, Britains Central Bank warned that the nations economy would likely grow at a pace of 1.75 in 2005, which would represent the worst year of growth in over a decade. This latest forecast is significantly from earlier forecasts of 3-3.5, that the Central Bank had released earlier this year. According to experts, rising energy prices are responsible. Others pin the blame squarely on the slowing real estate market, which has spurred a sharp decline in the consumption component of GDP. Ironically, other G7 countries, including Germany and Japan, are finally showing signs of growth. Britains economy, however, seems headed in the opposite direction. The Wall Street Journal reports: Calling 2005 the toughest and most challenging of his eight years as treasury chief, Gordon Brown blamed a virtual doubling of global oil and commodity prices. Last week, the UK Central Bank voted to lower interest rates for the first time in two years, to 4.5. Economists and analysts are already mooting the possibility of another decline before year-end, in anticipation of lower-than-expected UK economic growth. Several UK policy makers, however, are reluctant to lower rates any further, lest they incite another housing bubble. Rising home prices have already fuelled excessive borrowing and a proportionate rise in consumer spending. Officials, however, are worried that these spending levels have reached dangerous levels, rising twice as fast as wage growth statistics would seem to imply. The upshot is a very low likelihood of continued rate cuts. The Economist reports: It is unlikely that Britons are in for a series of interest-rate cuts. The Bank of England knows that no good will come of re-inflating the housing bubble, which would only result in worse pain down the road, as more consumers fall into the trap of too much debt. Britain recently became the first developed country in two years to lower interest rates, guiding its repo rate downward to 4.5. However, representatives from the Central Bank effectively dismissed speculation that other rate cuts would follow, calling the move economic fine-tuning. They will continue to target inflation, which is likely to resurface once Britains economy resumes its expansion. Many analysts believe policy-makers in other developed regions will soon follow suit, ushering in a period of tight monetary policy. Those analysts may be forced to wait, however. The Financial Times reports: The European Central Bank maintained its main interest rate at 2 per cent. Recently, evidence from business surveys appeared to back its view that conditions in the eurozone were improving. The release of the minutes of last months meeting of Britains Central Bank revealed a growing minority of members in favor of lowering interest rates. The official vote was 5-4 in favor of maintaining interest rates at current levels. However, few economists and pundits had reason to believe the vote would be so close. While many traders had already begun to price lower interest rates into bonds prior to last months meeting, it seems a rate cut at the next meeting is a near certainty. Recent economic data not only suggests the economy is slowing down, but also that inflation is likely to be lower than expected. As a result, both the members of the Central Bank targeting inflation indices as well as those targeting general economic performance, would seem to have a solid basis for lowering rates. The Financial Times reports: Sterling had already been on the ropes prior to the MPC announcementAgainst this backdrop sterling fell to a 19-month low in trade-weighted terms. At its last meeting, Britain8217s Central Bank voted to leave the national interest rate unchanged at 4.75. With new data pouring in every day suggesting Britain8217s economy is in trouble, the Bank8217s leaders may soon rethink their stance on interest rates. Consumer spending, considered by many British economists to be the most important growth driver, is declining. The drop in savings rates and stagnation of home prices indicates consumers have already spent all that can be expected. Moreover, last week8217s terrorist attacks will likely cause consumer confidence to fall further, mitigating the possibility of a fast recovery. Economic growth is now projected at 2.1 for 2005, down from 2.75 in 2004. When the Central Bank meets next month, the upshot will most certainly be lower interest rates. Traders and investors concur, and have priced two rate cuts into British debt futures, implying a rate of 4.25 at the year8217s end. Rate cuts or not, the British Pound will most likely continue to slide. The Economist reports: The strong chance of feeble growth in the second quarterthe National Institute of Economic and Social Research is forecasting a rise in GDP of only 0.3means that a cut in August is on the cards. In a poll of economists on July 5th by Reuters, 26 out of 43 said that rates would fall next month. Forex traders and investors responded to the terrorist attacks which rocked London today by sending the British Pound to near 18-month lows against the USD. As soon as the news reached the trading floors of forex dealers, panic set in, and the Pound quickly lost 1 of its value, relative to the USD. Experts agree both the attack-and the ensuing panic in the markets-could have been far worse. One trader spoke of a risk premium which has been built into the currencies of nations that are potentially susceptible to terrorism, and probably prevented the Pound from depreciating further. Investors begin to understand the relatively minor implications of this latest attack, the Pound may well recover. Forbes reports: The knee-jerk reaction was quite violent across all markets and the usual safe-haven trades were being put on, said one currency strategist. The market is now backing off a little and questioning the magnitude of the implications. For the last few years, speculators in search of high interest rates have poured hot money into Britain, causing the Pound to appreciate. Now, it seems the Pound may be overvalued, rendering British exports uncompetitive. A new spate of economic data indicates the British economy is slowing rapidly. In addition, a British housing bubble has begun to deflate, causing a subsequent decline in consumption. As Britains Central Bank prepares to lower interest rates, it seems investment will follow the same downward path as consumption. It may take a massive correction of Britains exchange rate to stem the decline of its economy. The Times Online reports: With sterlings valuation the focus of renewed attention, pressure on the pound will almost certainly intensify as currency markets home in on the increasingly apparent vulnerabilities of Britains economy. According to fresh economic data, growth is slowing in Britain. Real GDP growth of 2.1 is now projected, compared to earlier forecasts in the 2.7 range. Declining real GDP forecasts accompanied the release of trade data and housing statistics, which also seemed to signal economic slowdown. The situation is not as dire as the data would suggest, as much of the forecasted decline can be attributed to higher-than-expected inflation. Nonetheless, a rate cut at the next Central Bank meeting looks acutely possible. In recent meetings, a minority of central bank governors have proposed rate cuts, which were ultimately vetoed. While the GDP data would seem to necessitate a cut at the next meeting, nothing can be assumed. For instance, traders have currently priced in a mere .03 cut (which is impossible) into the price of British interest rate futures. The Financial Times reports: quotThe market can slam a currency quickly if it believes that a fundamental shift in interest rate psychology could be afoot, quot said senior currency trader. Said another trader, quotThe sterling looked overvalued against the main European crosses. quot He advised his clients to build a long eurosterling position. Britain recently became the latest European nation to entertain the possibility of interest rate cuts. In its last meeting, held earlier this month, two of the Bank of Englands nine governors voted to cut the federal interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25. There were other members who felt the interest rate cuts made economic sense, but should not be carried out because they would not be widely expected. Additionally, the minutes from the most recent ECB meeting reveals it, too, is giving serious consideration to rate cuts. Investors and traders, alike feel rate cuts by both central banks are becoming increasingly likely, reflected in changing bond prices. The Financial Times reports: On Wednesday the December Euribor future hit a record high, with the market pricing in about a 40 per cent chance of a cut in eurozone interest rates by the year8217s end. The euro has fallen 5 per cent on a trade-weighted basis since the start of the year, a sign of poor economic prospects, leading to market expectations of rate cuts. Britain8217s Labor Party has been re-elected, albeit by a narrow margin. While still a healthy 66 seats, the party8217s majority in the House of Commons has been greatly diminished. This election has several important implications for Britain8217s economy. First, the defeat of the conservative party mitigates the likelihood that there will be tax cuts andor decreases in government spending over the next few years. More importantly, Britain may now become more integrated in the European Union. Tony Blair is notorious for his support of the EU. Accordingly, he will likely campaign for Britain to ratify the EU Constitution if such a referendum is posed to its people. However, this is conditional on France and the Netherlands first approving the Constitution, which is by no means guaranteed. If Britain were to ratify the EU Constitution, it could conceivably abandon the pound in favor of the Euro. However, Labor8217s narrow majority over conservatives will likely preclude this from happening. Morgan Stanley reports: All in all, the reduced Labour majority perhaps makes it more likely that continuity, rather than radical reform, will characterise economic policy over the next four years. A British regulatory agency recently announced its belief that global currency markets should be regulated. Equity and debt markets are already heavily regulated, so why not currency markets, in which 2 trillion worth of currencies are exchanged every day. The regulatory agency8217s main suggestion was to separate analysts and traders, similar to what has been done in banks8217 debt and equity departments. There is a clear conflict of interest, or ability to manipulate currency markets, when analysts and traders collude. If a bank8217s analysts advise the bank8217s clients on the direction it believes a particular currency to be headed, that bank8217s traders could profit from the information. The analogy to equity markets is self-evident. The problem is one of jurisdiction and boundaries. Capital markets are regulated by an agency within the nation that the capital is invested in. Currencies, on the other hand, are often traded by parties outside of the currency8217s home country. Scotsman reports: THE Forex markets argument is that practitioner regulation, or self-regulation, is a better tool in fighting tricks of the trade and loophole hunting, rather than forced compliance with a one-size-fits-all rule. An Introduction to FOREX Trading: This free Forex mini-course is designed to teach you the basics of the Forex market and Forex trading in a non-boring way. وأنا أعلم أنك يمكن أن تجد هذه المعلومات في أي مكان آخر على شبكة الإنترنت، ولكن يتيح مواجهة أكثر من ذلك هو متناثرة وجافة جدا للقراءة. سأحاول جعل هذا البرنامج التعليمي متعة قدر الإمكان بحيث يمكنك معرفة المزيد عن تداول العملات الأجنبية ويكون وقتا طيبا القيام بذلك. عند الانتهاء من هذه الدورة سيكون لديك فهم قوي لسوق الفوركس وتداول العملات الأجنبية، وسوف تكون بعد ذلك على استعداد للتقدم إلى تعلم استراتيجيات التداول الفوركس في العالم الحقيقي. ما هو سوق الفوركس ما هو الفوركس أساسيات في الأساس، سوق الفوركس هو حيث البنوك والشركات والحكومات والمستثمرين والتجار تأتي لتبادل والمضاربة على العملات. ويشار إلى سوق الفوركس أيضا باسم سوق الفوركس، سوق العملات، سوق صرف العملات الأجنبية أو سوق العملات الأجنبية، وهي أكبر وأكبر سوق سيولة في العالم بمعدل دوران يومي قدره 3.98 تريليون دولار. سوق الفوركس مفتوح 24 ساعة في اليوم، 5 أيام في الأسبوع مع أهم المراكز التجارية العالمية التي تقع في لندن ونيويورك وطوكيو وزيورخ وفرانكفورت وهونغ كونغ وسنغافورة وباريس وسيدني. وتجدر الإشارة إلى أنه لا يوجد سوق مركزي لتداول سوق الفوركس يقال بدلا من ذلك أن تجري على العداد ليس مثل الأسهم حيث يوجد سوق مركزي مع جميع أوامر معالجتها مثل بورصة نيويورك. الفوركس هو منتج نقلت من قبل جميع البنوك الكبرى، وليس كل البنوك سيكون لها نفس السعر بالضبط. الآن، منصات وسيط تأخذ جميع أطروحات يغذي من البنوك المختلفة، ونقلت نراها من وسيط لدينا هي متوسط ​​تقريبي منهم. لها وسيط الذي هو على نحو فعال التعامل مع التجارة وأخذ الجانب الآخر من it8230they جعل السوق بالنسبة لك. عند شراء عملة وسيط بويور هو بيعها لك، وليس تاجر آخر. تاريخ موجز لسوق الفوركس حسنا، أعترف، هذا الجزء سيكون مملة قليلا، ولكن من المهم أن يكون بعض المعرفة الأساسية الأساسية لتاريخ سوق الفوركس حتى تعرف قليلا عن سبب وجوده وكيف وصلنا هنا. هنا هو تاريخ سوق الفوركس باختصار: في عام 1876، تم تطبيق شيء يسمى معيار صرف الذهب. في الأساس قال إن جميع العملات الورقية كان يجب أن تدعمها الذهب الصلب والفكرة هنا هي لتحقيق الاستقرار في العملات العالمية من خلال ربط لهم سعر الذهب. كانت فكرة جيدة من الناحية النظرية، ولكن في الواقع خلق أنماط الازدهار والكساد التي أدت في نهاية المطاف إلى زوال معيار الذهب. تم إسقاط المعيار الذهبي في بداية الحرب العالمية الثانية حيث لم يكن لدى الدول الأوروبية الكبرى ما يكفي من الذهب لدعم كل العملة التي كانت تطبعها لدفع تكاليف المشاريع العسكرية الكبيرة. على الرغم من أن المعيار الذهبي انخفض في نهاية المطاف، والمعادن الثمينة أبدا فقدت مكانتها باعتبارها الشكل النهائي للقيمة النقدية. ثم قرر العالم أن يكون له أسعار صرف ثابتة أدت إلى أن الدولار الأمريكي هو العملة الاحتياطية الأساسية وأنه سيكون العملة الوحيدة المدعومة من الذهب، وهذا ما يعرف باسم نظام بريتون وودز، وأنه حدث في عام 1944 (أنا أعلم أنك سوبر متحمس لمعرفة ذلك). في عام 1971 أعلنت الولايات المتحدة أنها لن تقوم بعد ذلك بتبادل الذهب مقابل الدولار الأمريكي المحتفظ به في الاحتياطيات الأجنبية، وهذا يشكل نهاية نظام بريتون وودز. وكان هذا انهيار نظام بريتون وودز الذي أدى في نهاية المطاف إلى القبول العالمي في معظمه لأسعار صرف العملات الأجنبية العائمة في عام 1976. وكان هذا فعليا ولادة سوق الصرف الأجنبي الحالية، على الرغم من أنها لم تصبح تتداول إلكترونيا على نطاق واسع حتى عن منتصف التسعينيات. (أوك الآن يتيح الانتقال إلى بعض المواضيع أكثر تسلية) ما هو تداول العملات الأجنبية تداول العملات الأجنبية من حيث علاقته بتجار التجزئة (مثلك وأنا) هو التكهنات على سعر عملة واحدة ضد آخر. على سبيل المثال، إذا كنت تعتقد أن اليورو سوف يرتفع مقابل الدولار الأمريكي، يمكنك شراء زوج العملات يوروس منخفضة ثم (نأمل) بيعه بسعر أعلى لتحقيق الربح. بطبيعة الحال، إذا قمت بشراء اليورو مقابل الدولار (اليورو مقابل الدولار الأميركي)، والدولار الأمريكي يقوي، سوف تكون ثم في وضع خاسر. لذلك، من المهم أن يكون على بينة من المخاطر التي ينطوي عليها تداول الفوركس، وليس فقط مكافأة. لماذا هو سوق الفوركس حتى شعبية يجري تاجر الفوركس يقدم نمط الحياة المحتملة المدهشة من أي مهنة في العالم. ليس من السهل للوصول الى هناك، ولكن إذا كنت مصممة ومنضبطة، يمكنك تحقيق ذلك. هيريس قائمة سريعة من المهارات التي سوف تحتاج للوصول إلى أهدافك في سوق الفوركس: القدرة 8211 أن تأخذ خسارة دون أن تصبح العاطفية الثقة 8211 إلى الاعتقاد في نفسك واستراتيجية التداول الخاصة بك، وليس لديهم خوف تفاني 8211 لتصبح أفضل الفوركس التاجر يمكنك انضباط 8211 للحفاظ على الهدوء والعاطفي في عالم من الإغراء المستمر (السوق) المرونة 8211 لتداول ظروف السوق المتغيرة بنجاح التركيز 8211 للبقاء مركزة على خطة التداول الخاصة بك وعدم الشاردة من مسار بالطبع للنظر في السوق من وجهة نظر موضوعية ومباشرة إلى الأمام منظمة لتأسيس وتعزيز عادات التداول الإيجابية الصبر إلى الانتظار فقط على أعلى استراتيجيات التداول الاحتمالية وفقا لخطتك الواقعية لا أعتقد أنك ذاهب إلى الحصول على الأغنياء سريعة وفهم واقع السوق والتجارة الدهاء للاستفادة من حافة التداول الخاص بك عندما تنشأ وتكون على بينة من ما يحدث في السوق في جميع الأوقات سيلف-كونتر أول إلى عدم الإفراط في التداول والإفراط في الاستفادة من حساب التداول الخاص بك كما التجار، يمكننا الاستفادة من الرافعة المالية العالية والتقلبات في سوق الفوركس من خلال التعلم وإتقان واستراتيجية التداول الفوركس فعالة، وبناء خطة تداول فعالة حول هذه الاستراتيجية، و بعد ذلك مع الانضباط الجليد الباردة. إدارة المال هو المفتاح هنا الرافعة المالية هو سيف ذو حدين ويمكن أن تجعلك الكثير من المال بسرعة أو تفقد لك الكثير من المال بسرعة. المفتاح لإدارة المال في تداول العملات الأجنبية هو أن نعرف دائما المبلغ الدولار بالضبط لديك في خطر قبل الدخول في التجارة وتكون على ما يرام تماما مع فقدان هذا المبلغ من المال، لأن أي تجارة واحدة يمكن أن يكون خاسرا. المزيد عن إدارة الأموال في وقت لاحق في الدورة. من يتداول الفوركس ولماذا البنوك يسمح السوق بين البنوك لكلا من صفقات الفوركس التجارية وكميات كبيرة من التداول المضاربة كل يوم. بعض البنوك الكبيرة سوف تتداول مليارات الدولارات يوميا. في بعض الأحيان يتم هذا التداول نيابة عن العملاء، ومع ذلك يتم الكثير من قبل التجار الملكية الذين يتاجرون لحساب البنوك الخاصة. الشركات تحتاج الشركات إلى استخدام سوق الصرف الأجنبي لدفع ثمن السلع والخدمات من الدول الأجنبية وأيضا لبيع السلع أو الخدمات في البلدان الأجنبية. جزء مهم من النشاط اليومي لسوق الفوركس يأتي من الشركات التي تتطلع إلى تبادل العملات من أجل التعامل في بلدان أخرى. الحكومات البنوك المركزية يمكن لبنك البلد المركزي أن يلعب دورا هاما في أسواق الصرف الأجنبي. ويمكن أن تتسبب في زيادة أو نقصان في قيمة عملتها من خلال محاولة السيطرة على عرض النقود والتضخم و (أو) أسعار الفائدة. ويمكنهم استخدام احتياطياتهم من العملات الأجنبية الكبيرة في محاولة لتحقيق الاستقرار في السوق. صناديق التحوط 8211 في ما بين 70 و 90 من جميع معاملات الصرف الأجنبي هي مضاربة بطبيعتها. وهذا يعني أن الشخص أو المؤسسات التي اشترت أو بيعت العملة ليس لديها خطة لتسليم العملة فعليا بدلا من ذلك، تم تنفيذ الصفقة مع نية الوحيدة للمضاربة على حركة سعر تلك العملة بالذات. مضاربون التجزئة (أنت وأنا) هي الجبن الصغيرة بالمقارنة مع صناديق التحوط الكبيرة التي تتحكم والمضاربة مع مليارات الدولارات من الأسهم كل يوم في أسواق العملات. الأفراد إذا كنت قد سافرت من أي وقت مضى إلى بلد آخر وتبادلت أموالك إلى عملة مختلفة في المطار أو البنك، كنت قد شاركت بالفعل في سوق صرف العملات الأجنبية. المستثمرون شركات الاستثمار التي تدير محافظ كبيرة لعملائها استخدام سوق العملات الأجنبية لتسهيل المعاملات في الأوراق المالية الأجنبية. على سبيل المثال، يحتاج مدير الاستثمار الذي يسيطر على محفظة الأسهم الدولية إلى استخدام سوق الفوركس لشراء وبيع عدة أزواج من العملات من أجل دفع ثمن الأوراق المالية الأجنبية التي يرغبون في شرائها. تجار الفوركس بالتجزئة وأخيرا، نأتي لتجار الفوركس التجزئة (أنت وأنا). وتزداد صناعة تجارة الفوركس بالتجزئة يوميا مع ظهور منصات تداول الفوركس وسهولة الوصول إليها عبر الإنترنت. تجار الفوركس بالتجزئة الوصول إلى السوق بشكل غير مباشر إما من خلال وسيط أو بنك. هناك نوعان رئيسيان من وسطاء الفوركس بالتجزئة التي توفر لنا القدرة على التكهن في سوق العملات: وسطاء وتجار. الوسطاء يعملون كوكيل للتاجر من خلال محاولة للعثور على أفضل الأسعار في السوق وتنفيذ نيابة عن العميل. لهذا، فإنها تتقاضى عمولة على رأس السعر الذي تم الحصول عليه في السوق. ويسمى التجار أيضا صناع السوق لأنها تجعل السوق للتاجر وتعمل بمثابة الطرف المقابل في معاملاتهم، واقتبس السعر الذي هم على استعداد للتعامل في ويتم تعويضهم من خلال انتشار. وهو الفرق بين سعر الشراء والبيع (المزيد عن هذا لاحقا). الفوركس هو أكبر سوق في العالم، مع كميات يومية تتجاوز 3 تريليون دولار يوميا. وهذا يعني سيولة كثيفة مما يجعل من السهل للوصول إلى وخارج المراكز. التجارة وقتما تشاء: لا يوجد جرس فتح في سوق الفوركس. يمكنك دخول أو الخروج من التجارة وقتما تشاء من الأحد حوالي 05:00 بتوقيت شرق الولايات المتحدة إلى الجمعة حوالي 4 مساء إست. سهولة الوصول: يمكنك تمويل حساب التداول الخاص بك مع ما لا يقل عن 250 في العديد من وسطاء التجزئة والبدء في التداول في نفس اليوم في بعض الحالات. مباشرة من خلال تنفيذ النظام يسمح لك للتجارة عند النقر على الماوس. أقل من أزواج العملات للتركيز على، بدلا من التخبط في محاولة لتحليل الآلاف من الأسهم حرية التجارة في أي مكان في العالم مع المتطلبات الوحيدة كونها جهاز كمبيوتر محمول واتصال بالإنترنت. تجارة خالية من اللجان مع العديد من صناع السوق التجزئة وتكاليف المعاملات أقل عموما من الأسهم والسلع. ويسمح التقلب للمتداولين بالربح في أي حالة من ظروف السوق ويوفر فرصا تجارية أسبوعية محتملة. كما لا يوجد أي تحيز في السوق الهيكلي مثل التحيز الطويل لسوق الأوراق المالية، لذلك التجار لديهم فرصة متساوية للربح في ارتفاع أو انخفاض الأسواق. في حين أن سوق الفوركس هو واضح سوقا كبيرا للتجارة، وأود أن ألاحظ لجميع المبتدئين أن التداول ينطوي على كل من احتمال المكافأة والمخاطر. كثير من الناس يأتون إلى الأسواق التفكير فقط عن المكافأة وتجاهل المخاطر التي تنطوي عليها، وهذا هو أسرع وسيلة لتفقد كل الأموال حساب التداول الخاص بك. إذا كنت تريد أن تبدأ التداول في سوق الفوركس على المسار الصحيح، من الأهمية بمكان أن كنت على بينة من وقبول حقيقة أنك يمكن أن تفقد على أي تجارة معينة كنت تأخذ. المنهج من جميع الفصول إخلاء مسؤولية. أي نصيحة أو معلومات على هذا الموقع هي المشورة العامة فقط - لا تأخذ في الاعتبار الظروف الشخصية الخاصة بك، يرجى عدم التداول أو الاستثمار استنادا فقط على هذه المعلومات. من خلال عرض أي مادة أو استخدام المعلومات الموجودة في هذا الموقع فإنك توافق على أن هذا هو مواد التعليم العام، وأنك لن تحمل أي شخص أو كيان مسؤول عن خسارة أو أضرار ناجمة عن المحتوى أو المشورة العامة المقدمة هنا من قبل تعلم التجارة ذي بتي لت ، وموظفيها، والمديرين أو الأعضاء الآخرين. العقود الآجلة والخيارات، وتداول العملات الفورية لديها مكافآت كبيرة محتملة، ولكن أيضا مخاطر محتملة كبيرة. يجب أن تكون على بينة من المخاطر وتكون على استعداد لقبولها من أجل الاستثمار في أسواق العقود الآجلة والخيارات. لا التجارة مع المال لا يمكن أن تخسر. هذا الموقع ليس التماس ولا عرض ل بزل العقود الآجلة، بقعة الفوركس، كفدس، خيارات أو غيرها من المنتجات المالية. لا يوجد أي تمثيل بأن أي حساب سيحقق أو يحتمل أن يحقق أرباحا أو خسائر مماثلة لتلك التي تمت مناقشتها في أي مادة على هذا الموقع. إن الأداء السابق لأي نظام أو منهجية تداول لا يعتبر بالضرورة مؤشرا للنتائج المستقبلية. تحذير عالي المخاطر: ينطوي تداول الفوركس والعقود الآجلة والخيارات على مكافآت محتملة كبيرة، ولكن أيضا مخاطر محتملة كبيرة. درجة عالية من الرافعة المالية يمكن أن تعمل ضدك وكذلك بالنسبة لك. يجب أن تكون على بينة من مخاطر الاستثمار في الفوركس، والعقود الآجلة، والخيارات وتكون على استعداد لقبولها من أجل التجارة في هذه الأسواق. ينطوي تداول الفوركس على مخاطر كبيرة من الخسارة وغير مناسب لجميع المستثمرين. من فضلك لا تتاجر مع المال المقترض أو المال الذي لا يمكن أن تخسره. يتم تقديم أي آراء أو أخبار أو أبحاث أو تحليلات أو أسعار أو معلومات أخرى تحتوي على هذا الموقع كتعليق عام للسوق ولا تشكل نصيحة استثمارية. نحن لن نقبل المسؤولية عن أي خسارة أو ضرر، بما في ذلك سبيل المثال لا الحصر، أي خسارة في الأرباح، والتي قد تنشأ بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر من استخدام أو الاعتماد على هذه المعلومات. يرجى تذكر أن الأداء السابق لأي نظام أو منهجية تداول ليس بالضرورة مؤشرا على النتائج المستقبلية.